tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-73349944185532458762024-03-21T13:02:47.114+05:30VIKRAM SOOD'S PERSPECTIVESA former intelligence chief's take on global security issues ranging from terrorism, energy, geo-politics, nuclear proliferation, US, China, India, Pakistan, Middle East and Central AsiaVikram Soodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17532738573788654660noreply@blogger.comBlogger482125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7334994418553245876.post-67868319786119088452021-10-15T16:16:00.004+05:302021-10-15T16:16:59.691+05:30Xi is Fine, Blame it on Modi!<p><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white;">T</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #364155;">ime magazine’s latest story is titled “</span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #364155;">Modi Never Bought Enough COVID-19 Vaccines for India. Now the Whole World Is Paying”</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #364155;"> </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #364155;">(</span><a href="https://time.com/6052370/modi-didnt-buy-enough-covid-19-vaccine/" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 250ms linear 0s;">https://time.com/6052370/modi-didnt-buy-enough-covid-19-vaccine/</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #364155;">) The story is that Narendra Modi did not buy enough vaccines, so the world is now suffering. The title to the article is a Freudian slip, revealing a particular mind set. The article does not blame China for the pandemic, or Xi Jinping, but it blames Modi. It seems that it is not the Wuhan Virus that is responsible for the crisis nor those who were contributing funds to the research at the Wuhan Virology Institute, but it blames Modi’s failure to buy the vaccine. Modi is thus sought to be painted as the ‘global villain.’ The irony is that the writer is talking about a popularly re-elected leader of the world’s largest democracy.</span></span></i></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #364155; line-height: 28px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The bottom line about the charge that Modi did not buy vaccines is that purchases in large quantities would have been from American companies like Pfizer and Moderna. However, the US and UK governments had hoarded vaccines, far beyond their national requirements and refused to share it. There has also been resistance to relaxing the patent regime to enable others to buy the vaccine.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #364155; line-height: 28px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">For those who may wish to pursue this a bit more may read this author’s book, ‘<em style="box-sizing: border-box;">The Ultimate Goal (2020)’.</em> The book highlights the pandemic and the role of big pharma companies, the changing equations and price wars for maximizing profits. “Traditional wars on the battlefield will become even more unfashionable. The pharma-industrial complex will be an addition to the existing military-industrial-intelligence-technology complex.”</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #364155; line-height: 28px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Given the current comfortable state of India-US relations at many levels, it may not be the official policy to denigrate India but there are surely immensely powerful interests in the US also at work. The idea now is also to shift the narrative away from China and target India. This is because China is far too powerful and there are too many deep western financial and trade entanglements with it and therefore any harsh action against China could rebound on the western corporate interests. This truth is known to both China and the West. So, pick on a country where blame can be fixed to change the narrative. The usual tactics is at play here, create a narrative, and then let events unfold. And narratives do not have to be based on truth but need to have acceptability. Besides, the western world has had the means to build and sustain its narratives of superiority, justify its actions or the righteousness of its causes, through its global dominance of multiple means of communication of the message. One classic and recent example being the way the narrative for the Iraq War in March 2003 was built. The world was told that Saddam Hussein was harbouring Al Qaeda and that he possessed weapons of mass destruction. None of this was true.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #364155; line-height: 28px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;"> </em>Mike Pompeo, former Director CIA and Secretary of State in an interview with Bari Weiss, an American journalist, on May 19, 2021, made some significant statements<em style="box-sizing: border-box;">. (</em><a href="https://bariweiss.substack.com/p/did-covid-come-from-the-lab-mike" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #007bff; text-decoration-line: none; transition: all 250ms linear 0s;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">https://bariweiss.substack.com/p/did-covid-come-from-the-lab-mike</em></a>). Weiss started the interview with the question<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"> “….do you think that the COVID-19 virus came from a lab in Wuhan?” </em>Pompeo replied<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"> “I do and have for quite some time…” </em>In the hour-long interview, Pompeo asserted that Chinese Communist Party had gone into a full coverup mode because all the evidence gathered pointed to<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"> “the single direction of this having been a laboratory leak from a place called the Wuhan Institute of Virology</em>”. Pompeo added that when these doubts were raised early last yea<em style="box-sizing: border-box;">r, “we were accused not only of being a little bit unhinged but of being racist or xenophobic, somehow denoting that the Chinese were lesser than other human beings. Nothing could be further from the truth.” The Chinese used “every available information warfare strategy that they have in their toolkit to knock down the storyline.”</em></span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #364155; line-height: 28px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Pompeo goes on to explain how the CCP was operating in the US<em style="box-sizing: border-box;">. “They are working with something called the United Front. This is China’s external influence operations…. Working something called a Confucius Institute. It seems noble, to learn Mandarin, learn about Chinese culture and life will be better for everyone and maybe you will even get a good job working in a big bank in New York working on Chinese accounts…. The Chinese Communist party working on our college campuses, on our research institutions. What are they doing there? They are providing real money like providing research body grants. So that these professors can do all kinds of different research, mostly in engineering, science, math, blockchain technology, artificial intelligence. They’ll put a couple of Chinese scholars alongside them and then they’ll work together to find a problem and they will steal intellectual property like you can’t imagine and we just looked the other way for so long.” </em>When asked why the Americans were looking the other way, Pompeo’s elaboration was detailed.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #364155; line-height: 28px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #333333; font-weight: 600;"><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">“</em></span><em style="box-sizing: border-box;">Oh, by big money, which is at stake”, </em>he said.<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"> “There are 3,60,000 Chinese students studying at those universities today. Those students pay full freight. They are carrying a significant financial burden for those educational institutions. So, I remember when we started to look closely at the level of Chinese spying on campuses, I immediately got letters from every major college institution in America from their presidents and from their trade associations saying, ‘Hey be very careful. These students are here. They are noble, they’re wonderful, they just want to learn about the American way of life and oh, by the way, they make up 40% of our operating budget.’</em></span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #364155; line-height: 28px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Pompeo also said that he was privy to a lot of conversations with hedge fund managers and businesspeople. Their refrain was that it was true that China was terrible at human rights, stole American intellectual property but China was also unstoppable, was a huge market and Americans now had no choice other than to do business with them. So, in the end they basically said<em style="box-sizing: border-box;"> “let us cover our eyes, let us plug our ears and keep the money. What do you want to say to those people…with vested economic interests?” Pompeo reminded that the Chinese Communist party was operating inside American financial institutions, agricultural institutions, in a way that is deeply intentional right to suck this intellectual property out for a purpose. The Chinese have a hold on Hollywood, sports attire industry, and they also attend city council meetings across the country evaluating every official as friendly neutral or hostile when they are not busy stealing secrets from Los Angeles’ innovative energy companies. </em></span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #364155; line-height: 28px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The desire is to shift the narrative away from China and pick a more ‘convenient villain’. In India’s case, this kind of personalised targeting has other motives too. It seeks to demonise Narendra Modi who is seen as a major impediment to western corporate interests in a growing India. Modi’s schemes like Atma Nirbhar Bharat and Make in India have been viewed with suspicion. According to this standard western script, India is a market and resource base, not a competitor or much worse, a rival. It is great if it is a pliable democracy, even a pliable dictatorship will also do, but a strong independent self-reliant democracy is an awkward entity and best prevented.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #364155; line-height: 28px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Regime change in a democratically elected government is not easy. Military coups are impossible, and wars as seen in West Asia, are expensive with results uncertain so the best way is to try and internally destabilize a government. This needs local assistance and we have seen that all too often in recent years, since 2014 but more desperate since 2019. From the JNU and Jamia agitation to Shaheen Bagh to the riots of Delhi; all organized in detail, financed generously and logistics worked out. Leading on to the farmers strike, it shows a combination of various vested interests desperately trying to destabilize the government. In fact, the farmers strike indicates huge financial and logistic support from groups who feel it worthwhile to pursue this and who seem to be well endowed to manage this.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #364155; line-height: 28px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Besides, the Indian economy, buoyant till recently has now taken a severe knock, and will take a while to recover. It certainly suits China if this were prolonged. China, as we all know, has not taken kindly to India for spurning the Huawei attempt on acquiring 5G rights in India. There are many who believe that this was retribution in a frighteningly cruel manner. Doklam and Galwan were attempts to coerce India into submission on other issues. Simultaneously, the west with its sluggish economic growth sees the spectre of three Asian economic giants, Japan, China, and India staring at them ten years down the line. Obviously, this cannot be good news, and this must be stopped. The western powers also think that the unintended consequences of supporting Chinese economy since the 1990s to apparently further their own economic interests are now proving very costly. Therefore, they believe that, there is no scope for repeating the same mistake.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #364155; line-height: 28px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There is no denying that there have been some miscalculations and poor strategies in handling the crisis, apart from the fact that there is a very creaky health infrastructure, which was inherited by the present government and attempts to rectify them had just begun. There is a global government to government declaration of support to Indian efforts, but the pharma world has different yardsticks. Profit not healing is the driving force. Adam Smith and not Hippocrates, is their role model.</span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #364155; line-height: 28px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 10px;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #364155; line-height: 28px; margin-bottom: 0px; margin-top: 10px;"><b><span style="font-family: arial;">Source : Chanakya Forum, June 1, 2021</span></b></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div><br /><p></p>Vikram Soodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17532738573788654660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7334994418553245876.post-58522014772884088632021-10-13T16:02:00.004+05:302021-10-13T16:02:44.133+05:30Why India must be watchful against the ‘Islamic State vs Taliban’ narrative<p><b><i><span style="font-family: arial;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222;">The speed with which US sources have been blaming the IS – Khorasan (IS-K) for the massive terrorist attack at Kabul airport on August 26, sounds like a weak alibi. US intelligence had earlier predicted, on August 12, that it would be about three months before the Taliban would reach Kabul. Instead, the Taliban entered Kabul on August 14. This sudden ability to collect this information about the terrorist attack even as the bodies and the injured were being removed from the sight so soon after a failure to predict the fall of Kabul, only makes the claim appear to be motivated. It is to build a new story line, a new narrative. Americans would find it embarrassing to be seen as the ones who negotiated their exit with the Taliban just a few months ago and who then carried out the attack which killed many Americans.</span></span></i></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; line-height: 15.6933px; margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The primary goal thus would be to get the Taliban – and by extension - Pakistan, out of the firing line and let the blame fall on IS-K. This would suit the Taliban too. It matters little to the Afghan if this was the Taliban or the IS Khorasan that killed; the primary message of fear among the Afghans and foreigners, as a means of control has been delivered. A force inexperienced in the technique and art of governance has only fear as a weapon to enforce its diktat. This fear will become real, once the Taliban learn how to use the biometric devices the US have left behind which have the fingerprints, and eye scans of the Afghans who worked for the Americans as interpreters or in other capacities</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; line-height: 15.6933px; margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Afghanistan today is becoming Jihad Central, and it is radical and Sunni; over time, its own momentum after a victory of their Faith over another superpower from another faith, will carry its activities into other parts of the region, beginning Central Asia and possibly India. Apart from Al Qaeda, many of whose remnants embedded themselves with the Taliban, there are other groups that exist. The IS-K came into being in 2015 and included former Tehrik-e-Taliban terrorists. The US and Afghan forces as well as Taliban, separately had pushed back the IS-K substantially. The powerful Haqqani Network, which Admiral Mike Mullen described in 2011 as the veritable arm of the ISI, has strong allegiance to Pakistan and operates separately when needed.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; line-height: 15.6933px; margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Then there are smaller groups like the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (which consists of extremists from other Pakistani Sunni extremists), the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and even the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement of the Uighurs. India-centric jihadi organisations like the Lashkar-e Tayyaba and Jaish e Mohammed fetched up in Kabul, to exult in the Taliban victory, express solidarity and hope for assistance for their cause in Kashmir. In the past Pakistan has been very adept at creating new terror outfits either when one of them did not perform or had been exposed. This was common in Jammu and Kashmir in the 1990s. IS-K could well be a front created by Pakistan to divert allegations and suspicion.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; line-height: 15.6933px; margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;"><span style="font-family: arial;">It is expected that in the early months the Taliban would try to settle down into controlling the territory, overpowering other groups and to govern, something about which they have no experience. administering it. Presumably this would be the advice from their Pakistani mentors. For the present, many would eye the bonanza that the US administration has left behind. Most of it would be cornered by the Pakistan army but surely a considerable amount will go to the Taliban. Along with the Pakistanis, they now possess more Blackhawk helicopters than many countries. It is estimated that the US left behind US equipment worth $ 85 billion, including 75000 vehicles, over 200 airplanes and helicopters, and significantly over 600,000 small arms and weapons. Future terrorists in Jammu and Kashmir will be attacking Indians with American weapons. Not only that, also left behind are night vision goggles, body armour which would be very useful for terrorists.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; line-height: 15.6933px; margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;"><span style="font-family: arial;">There have been occasional statements from Taliban representatives about jihad in Kashmir. The possibility of the jihad shifting from Afghanistan to Kashmir is real, as the out of work jihadi foot soldiers must be kept busy. But the Taliban would need to settle down first. In the short-term though it is unlikely that there will be a major incident in Jammu and Kashmir; their mentors are aware of the capabilities of Indian security forces and the new policy of the Indian government. Next year it could be different especially with elections in UP and this kind of trouble is difficult to trace to an external source. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; line-height: 15.6933px; margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Next year something else could happen. Afghans are well known for their ability to stick together against a foreign invasion but to fall out very quickly into ethnic and sectarian war zones once the foreign threat has faded. There is also the lure of the narcotics trade. A great deal would ultimately depend on whether Afghanistan is ruled by proxy from the Shuras of Quetta, Peshawar and Miran Shah or from Quetta and Kabul.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; line-height: 15.6933px; margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;"><span style="font-family: arial;">India needs to be watchful, not despondent.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; line-height: 15.6933px; margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; line-height: 15.6933px; margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Source : Economic Times, August 27, 2021</span></p>Vikram Soodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17532738573788654660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7334994418553245876.post-6607694484711374072021-10-13T16:00:00.003+05:302021-10-13T16:04:23.587+05:30Afghanistan: A fast-evolving powder keg waiting to explode<p><b><i><span face="Calibri, sans-serif" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial;">Ahmed Shah Massoud, the Lion of Panjshir and feared by the Taliban, was assassinated by two assassins who came from Belgium to Panjshir via Pakistan. Today, his son Ahmed Massoud is somewhere in the mountains of Panjshir as the Pakistan Army in Taliban camouflage and helped by drones, hunt for him and his associate, Amrullah Saleh.</span></i></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; line-height: 15.6933px; margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;"><span style="font-family: arial;">19 terrorists attacked the United States with cataclysmic results bringing the world to a standstill. Today, the Taliban who had sheltered Al Qaeda, are ruling in Kabul. Helping these ogres were the Pakistani Army who themselves had sheltered Osama bin Laden for years in Abbottabad while they pretended to cooperate in the America-led Global War on Terror. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; line-height: 15.6933px; margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;"><span style="font-family: arial;">September 11, 2021: The Taliban, who hosted Al Qaeda control Kabul, and no Western nation wants to name Pakistan as the sponsor of terrorism.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; line-height: 15.6933px; margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Obviously, terrorism pays and there is considerable merit in sponsoring terrorism. That is the message for the future.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; line-height: 15.6933px; margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;"><span style="font-family: arial;">It is necessary here to recapitulate a few facts about the players in this game.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; line-height: 15.6933px; margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The Taliban are a jihadi force that believes in the practice, imposition and spread of extreme Sunni Islam through conquest and violence. Having won an iconic jihadi victory, they have begun to rule strictly according to the Sharia and will not dilute their creed. They attained victory in Kabul with Pakistani assistance in military and psywar strategy, sanctuaries and military hardware. 14 members of the Taliban cabinet are on the UNSC terrorism blacklist; their sponsor, Pakistan is on the Grey List of the FATC.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; line-height: 15.6933px; margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Second, Pakistani establishment’s hatred for India is a given, unchanging and vicious. It is also getting Islamised. The Pakistan state will survive so long as it nurtures and spreads enmity with India. They have been at it since 1947 and have not given up their dream. Both Taliban and Pakistan now rejoice that it was their faith that defeated two superpowers; the rest should now be easy. For Pakistan control of Afghanistan was always about seeking security against India. The Taliban victory in Kabul will nourish the Pakistani dream of attaining equality with India followed by its breakup. Ghazwa-e-Hind is their ultimate dream. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; line-height: 15.6933px; margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Third, the U.S., a mighty superpower has left Afghanistan, defeated by a religious force. This is the essential truth; whatever spin might be put on this by the Americans and their allies. US reputation and western systems of democracy and liberalism are the biggest losers. Anybody who knew the region knew this project was doomed to fail. America had chosen the wrong ally and fought in the wrong country. It was a matter of when, not if. Pentagon pressures had presumably forced a continuation of this war even as President Obama wanted to withdraw American forces.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; line-height: 15.6933px; margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The Taliban are a barbaric lot who want to push Afghans and everyone else into medieval obscurantism. The Americans with their arrogance and narcissistic description of their national interests just wanted to leave and Pakistan, the resident opportunist who sees this as its last chance to grab Kashmir, got into a huddle seeking attainment of their separate goals. These three may be centre stage today but waiting to storm in are China and its two friends, Russia and Iran, all with different goals.<br /><br /><span>Quite clearly the present situation is largely the result of a three-way deal.</span></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; line-height: 15.6933px; margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The first part of the deal was between the Americans and the Taliban about the details and mechanics of allowing the Americans to leave. The Taliban played their cards smartly and are holding several Americans hostage to be released possibly after the US grants the Taliban regime some legitimacy. Some leaders willing to leave for safer havens would be allowed to escape. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; line-height: 15.6933px; margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The second deal would have been a U.S.-Pakistan deal to encourage Pakistan to facilitate a U.S.-Taliban agreement and reward Pakistan for its efforts. Almost certainly this would allow Pakistan complete freedom to deal with Afghanistan, including making the Afghan National Army ineffective so that it did not pose any threat to the Taliban or later to the Pakistani Army. Both would have agreed that is would be good optics if it appeared that they had been negotiating with a reformed Taliban, that the present threat to Afghanistan was from other terrorist organizations likely the Islamic State Khorasan Province and the Pakistani hand had to be shown to be clean.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; line-height: 15.6933px; margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;"><span style="font-family: arial;">The third deal was between the Taliban and Pakistan for a post-victory arrangement in Kabul. A Pakistan-Taliban deal which would enable Pakistani overlordship over Afghanistan for an unspecified length of time and Pakistan veto on government formation and Afghan foreign policies especially with neighbouring countries. </span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; line-height: 15.6933px; margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Afghanistan’s ‘country boys,’ as they were fondly referred to by a British general, dot the countryside with remnants of<i> </i>Al Qaeda, the so-called Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), an ISI bogey, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, jihadis from Central Asia and China and Pakistan’s India-specific jihadis. Afghanistan is a fast-evolving powder keg waiting to explode and the debris will fall on the neighbourhood.</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; line-height: 15.6933px; margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Today, 20 years later one hears that Americans are now trying to create a narrative to support renowned terror groups like Al Qaeda and Taliban in a supposed fight against Islamist terror of the ISKP and its Arab affiliates. Apparently, the US wants to stay on. This intended somersault to indulge the violent agendas of the Islamists in my area, means the US can no longer guarantee global security. It is behaving more like a gambler who has lost but insists on playing on. The world is not your casino, Joe Biden.<br /><br />The Islamists may dislike people from other religions and hate Shias but with those from NATO who occupied their land, they will seek revenge, slowly and repeatedly. There will be no closure.<i></i></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; line-height: 15.6933px; margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; line-height: 15.6933px; margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;"><b><i><span style="font-family: arial;">Source : Economic Times , September 10, 2021</span></i></b></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 11pt; line-height: 15.6933px; margin: 0cm 0cm 8pt;"> </p>Vikram Soodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17532738573788654660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7334994418553245876.post-49919596415361721742020-09-25T19:31:00.001+05:302020-09-25T19:31:21.812+05:30India and the U.S. - As the Friendship Grows<p style="text-align: justify;"> </p><p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span lang="EN-US">Ashley Tellis is an old
friend and I was more than a little surprised at this gratis advisory,
delivered recently. (</span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;">If India keeps
diluting its liberal character, the West will be a less eager partner, Ashley Tellis
September 23, 2020,<b> </b></span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://theprint.in/opinion/if-india-keeps-diluting-its-liberal-character-the-west-will-be-a-less-eager-partner/506160/"><span style="color: black;">https://theprint.in/opinion/if-india-keeps-diluting-its-liberal-character-the-west-will-be-a-less-eager-partner/506160/</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"> ) </span><span lang="EN-US">Known for his
circumspection and for his role in the improvement of India-US ties in the
Bush-Vajpayee era and even later, his latest outburst seems out of character.
Or maybe not, since the U.S. now has India as a budding defence market even
though we did not buy the American fighter aircraft and preferred the French
product. The American military-industrial complex would not have forgiven this
transgression by the Indians.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>So, an
attempt to further American defence interests by an American is perfectly
understandable. That is how it should be and that is how any reasonable
national should also be expected to do for his country. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US"><span style="font-family: arial;">The other possibility
is that now that the U.S. has achieved what it set out to do long ago and it took
nearly two decades to get there, tying up the Indian military establishment
more closely with the American, U.S. can now throw away any restraint it might
have had in criticising India. America can now tell us not only where we are
going wrong, which is fine among friends and then advice Indians what is good
for us in a manner that also conveys a threat. This is not so good. Now for
some specific comments. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Re need to indegenise defence production.
Comment: True all equipment need not be made in India. But no, this decision is
driven by threat assessments, cost of equipment, and the need to be independent
of supplies which in the past tended to dry up for strategic and partisan
considerations of the supplier. Besides no major power can be a major power unless
it is reasonably self-sufficient in the means to defend itself and maybe sell
the equipment to others, a page from American practices. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Re Unlike China, India has seen its rise
widely welcomed – Comment: No, China’s cooperation was assiduously sought since
the times of Nixon welcomed in the West, and human rights were never an issue,
until things began to go wrong recently.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 19.5pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Re US & many other
Western powers jumping at the prospect of aiding India’s ascent, presuming that
it would not misuse its power against its own citizens or its neighbours.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Comment: This is rich, coming from a country
that has liberally pounced on its neighbours, adversaries - real and imagined,
globally in the last 70 years. In defence of freedom, undoubtedly. And of
course, Black Lives Matter. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 19.5pt; text-align: justify;"><span style="font-family: arial;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;">Re policies widely
perceived to be illiberal have eroded this confidence, like </span><span lang="EN-US"><a href="https://scroll.in/latest/952217/are-still-a-democracy-asks-priyanka-gandhi-as-j-k-leaders-remain-in-detention-even-after-6-months"><span style="color: black; text-decoration: none;">revocation of Jammu and Kashmir’s autonomy</span></a></span><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;">, CAA, possible NRC, seen
as a weakening commitment to liberalism…<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>moves have not satisfied India’s minority groups or others concerned
about India’s direction.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Comment:<b> </b>This
bit about CAA, NRC, minority groups, and so on, is a typical cold war-style
narrative, amid lootings, violence, and arson in the US, is highly out of place<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 19.5pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Re The community of liberal
democracies internationally stands to lose if domestic unrest fueled by
confrontational politics stymies India’s growth or if India enlarges its
material capabilities only by sacrificing its liberal character. Either outcome
would dilute the West’s eagerness to partner with India. Comment: Clearly
holding out a threat.<b> </b><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Nothing of
the sort dampened western enthusiasm in dealing with China and making that
country even stronger as can be seen by its behaviour since early 2020. The
West continued to happily deal with China and adjusted policy despite Chinese
practices of oppression. Profit was the motive, now running thin.<o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 19.5pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: arial;">Re realization of potential
will require New Delhi to deepen its economic reforms in order to expand its
national power, use that power to strengthen the liberal international order in
partnership with its fellow democracies, and remain a credible example of how
liberal politics can advance development in large, diverse countries outside of
the West. On each count, India will have to meaningfully correct course if it
is to achieve these ambitious aims. Comment: Three advisories, delivered gratis
but sounding ominous - like an ultimatum. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 19.5pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><span style="font-family: arial;">An American friendship is
valuable to India. Surely the reverse should be true as well. In the midst of
falling and failing democracies, we have held our ground; not perfectly, not
ideally but then democracies are imperfect and inefficient. We need time, and
please remember the US, nearly 270 years after independence still does not have
a woman president. Transfer of power in India has always been through the
ballot. Our friends need to be patient because we got so far after independence
because the majority has been and will be intrinsically moderate. <o:p></o:p></span></span></p>
<p class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 19.5pt; text-align: justify;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: black;"><o:p><span style="font-family: arial;"><b>September 25, 2020</b></span></o:p></span></p>Vikram Soodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17532738573788654660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7334994418553245876.post-8982026805208010852019-08-12T12:10:00.004+05:302019-08-12T12:10:55.405+05:30The Pathos of Pakistan: With Article 370 gone, Pakistan loses its 'jugular vein' and its face<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Pakistan is cornered after India revoked Article 370. But it is still a time of great caution for India. We must watch the neighbour's moves, his begging bowl in one hand, dagger in the other.</span></h4>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Barely a fortnight after Imran Khan returned from his visit to the US — “triumphant” after President Trump offered to mediate the Kashmir issue — the Indian government announced the revocation of Articles 370 and 35A, leaving Imran and the Pakistani Army in impotent rage.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Pakistan lost what it used to call its “<span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3366ff; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/world/pakistan/story/nawaz-sharif-calls-kashmir-the-jugular-vein-of-pakistan-174323-2013-08-19" rel="nofollow" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3366ff; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">jugular vein</a></span>”.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">In what could be seen as a diplomatic snub, when Imran Khan reached the Dulles airport, reportedly there was no high-ranking US administration official to welcome him.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">On the contrary, Pakistani Army chief General Bajwa, who accompanied Prime Minister Imran Khan, was the one who did the actual talking in the US. The General was presented a guard of honour with a 21-gun salute as he arrived at the Pentagon — and was received by Chairman Joint Chief of Staff General Joseph F Dunford. He had independent meetings with President Trump and the US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The Americans — and the rest of the world — know where the true power lies in Pakistan, and they made no bones about it this time.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">However, despite all this, the <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3366ff; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><a href="https://www.businesstoday.in/current/world/us-approves-military-sales-worth-usd-125-mn-to-pakistan-for-monitoring-of-f-16-fighter-jets/story/368290.html" rel="nofollow" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3366ff; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Pentagon approved only USD 125 million</a></span>worth of technical and logistics support for Pakistani F-16 fighter jets. This will essentially be used to pay salaries to 60 US contractors to monitor the use of the fighter jets in Pakistan.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">With the revocation of Article 370, Imran Khan and the Pakistani Army must be seen doing something to display their anger against India. Even if they cannot actually do something, they should at least be seen pretending to do something. If not, there will be trouble back home from the political opposition, jihadis — and the Army itself.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">All these are desperate moves by a country that has lost its face. To that extent, India should be indulgent and let them rant.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Pakistan has been <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3366ff; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><a href="https://www.aljazeera.com/news/southasia/2019/08/pakistan-khan-calls-international-intervention-kashmir-190806131911914.html" rel="nofollow" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3366ff; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">threatening</a></span> to go to the United Nations Security Council, the International Court of Justice and has approached the Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC). So far, the reactions of the international community have ranged from being lukewarm to outright aloof. If Pakistan challenges India’s move in the international arena, it will be seen as a country clutching a begging bowl in one hand — and a dagger in the other.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Imran Khan can try and impose economic sanctions and threaten to “starve” India, asking the government to roll back the revocation. If he does that, it will be a relief for India, for we will not need to bother with the magnanimity and diplomatic niceties we have displayed thus far towards the hostile neighbour by not taking counteraction to their misdemeanours. The niceties and the magnanimity have always been misinterpreted by Pakistan.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="main_trump-and-imran_081019092507.jpg" src="https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/sites/dailyo/story/embed/201908/main_trump-and-imran_081019092507.jpg" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; max-width: 600px; outline: none; padding: 0px;" title="main_trump-and-imran_081019092507.jpg" /></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The visit that crashed: Imran Khan's "triumphant" visit to the US came to naught when Article 370 was revoked. (Photo: Reuters)</span></strong></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Pakistan can and will knock furiously at various doors in the international community — it will also retaliate by letting loose its psychological warfare (PSYWAR) unit, try to create unrest in Kashmir and probably shut down the Kartapur Corridor even before it is formally opened. As it is, the future of the Samjhauta Express stands bleak and as a misnomer in the present state of relations.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Of course, Pakistan can also always unleash the 30,000 to 40,000 militants in that country “who have been trained and fought in some part of Afghanistan or Kashmir”, as was <a href="https://www.aninews.in/news/world/asia/pakistan-still-has-30000-40000-militants-admits-imran-khan20190724115318/" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: black; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;">admitted</a> by Prime Minister Imran Khan during his US visit. Reportedly, the delegation that accompanied Khan agreed to take action against militants. The words cannot be hollow as the action (or the lack of it) can be easily verified by American or British intelligence.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">So, Imran Khan now has a choice — either he defies the US and UK and lets the militants run loose. Or, he can defy the Pakistani Army and order a shutdown of all terror camps. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">With the FATF to discuss Pakistan’s future as a responsible state in the next few months, does the country even have the option of unleashing the militants?</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Not unless it has a death wish.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">To keep jihadi tempers in check, the country might accord a high profile to Hafiz Saeed and Maulana Masood Azhar once again. Unlikely that there would be anything more than that.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The Pakistan Army is not likely to engage India in a conventional war since it has too much at stake in the present status quo. Besides, a war between nuclear-armed states is internationally unacceptable. The Line of Control (LoC) now has a different connotation than it did in 1999.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The UN has issued its usual inconsequential anodyne statement, and the US has said India’s actions are its internal matter.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">China is the only major country that has come out with a statement on Ladakh — while urging peaceful negotiations.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">So far, India has not issued any statement on how the Uighurs are being treated in China or what has been happening in Hong Kong for weeks. Maybe it is time that we consider replying to the Chinese the same way — sharp and forceful. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">What Pakistan, and many in India, failed to realise is Narendra Modi’s ability to surprise. He surprised everyone by inviting SAARC leaders to his swearing-in and Nawaz Sharif had to show up. Modi showed up at Nawaz’s granddaughter’s wedding and Nawaz was pleasantly surprised. On both occasions, the Pakistani Generals were unhappy and launched a few terror attacks. Modi also surprised Indians with the contents of his speech on August 15.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Similarly, reactions to the Uri and Pulwama terror strikes were a clear indication that India had changed.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="modi_081119104601.jpg" src="https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/sites/dailyo/story/embed/201908/modi_081119104601.jpg" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; max-width: 600px; outline: none; padding: 0px;" title="modi_081119104601.jpg" /></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">New terms: PM Modi's August 15 speech was also a surprise to many. (Photo: Reuters)</span></strong></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The message was clear — India was not afraid of war but will not start a war.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">And now, Article 370 and 35A are no longer on the statute books. This is a perfectly legitimate exercise because it was inserted by India in 1954, and has now been withdrawn. Both actions are unilateral. These were not a part of any UN resolution. Article 35A was surreptitiously introduced. The state of Jammu and Kashmir has taken a different geographic and political shape. The issue cannot be internationalised anymore. It is, quite clearly, an internal matter.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">In any case, Pakistan has been tinkering around with parts of Jammu and Kashmir under its illegal occupation. It signed off a part of the territory in Northern Kashmir to China in 1963.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The Lok Sabha had discussed the issue of revocation of the special status of Kashmir even in September 1964. A <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3366ff; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/1964-when-parties-wanted-article-370-abrogated/story-4JsC6NomhAZPiPwfPrx9UM.html" rel="nofollow" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #3366ff; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">news report</a></span> dated September 12, 1964, states that there was a unanimous demand for Kashmir’s full integration with India in the Lok Sabha the previous day. It was Prakash Vir Shastri’s private bill that was being discussed and, as was reported, there was “unexpected support from Congress who together with members of the Opposition, pleaded that the time had come to end the uncertainty about the State’s future. One way was to scrap Article 370.”</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">That discussion was inconclusive.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">It took us 55 years after that to do away with Article 370. The method adopted this time was more realistic, practical — and in national interest.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">As Zorawar Daulet Singh, author of the book <em style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">Power and Diplomacy</em>recently pointed out, the removal of Jammu and Kashmir’s special status ends ambiguity about its status and snatches strategic initiative away from Pakistan and its benefactors who used this issue to berate India. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><img alt="main1_crpf-and-child_081019093946.jpg" src="https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/sites/dailyo/story/embed/201908/main1_crpf-and-child_081019093946.jpg" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; max-width: 600px; outline: none; padding: 0px;" title="main1_crpf-and-child_081019093946.jpg" /></span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">There's time yet: Peace will take longer to establish in Kashmir. But the first step has finally been taken. (Photo: Twitter/Prasar Bharati News Services)</span></strong></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">This now opens possibilities for development and dignity for the people of Jammu and Kashmir, who have been cannon fodder in a distorted political economy that has fueled violence.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Kashmiri politicians, and their friends in mainland India, took advantage of Articles 370 and 35A. So did the Pakistani establishment — the Pakistani Army to retain primacy, politicians to campaign during election time, wily businessmen looking for profits, religious fundamentalists to strengthen their hold in Pakistan. Now, those who took advantage of their war cry “Kashmir Banega Pakistan” will have to find other slogans.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">A happy congruence of interests on both sides of the LOC.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The next few weeks will need a close watch.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">There is normal traffic plying on the streets of Srinagar and prayers have been held in mosques. These are positive signals — but apparent normalcy should not be mistaken for real peace. The usual scaremongers in the media and social media will have to be pre-empted. In this game, he who has the first say has the advantage. Denials or counters do not have the same effect. No relaxation of security measures would be advisable.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">The business of sorting out citizenship issues, the return of Kashmiri Pandits and organising elections in Jammu and Kashmir should begin as quickly as possible.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">None of this will happen overnight.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">But we have waited 70 years.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">A little more cannot hurt.</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;">Source : DailyO, 11th August 2019 </span></b></div>
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Vikram Soodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17532738573788654660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7334994418553245876.post-91747960278450880242019-06-13T11:41:00.000+05:302019-06-13T11:41:28.010+05:30 New India's Voice: Narendra Modi has been voted in despite elite derision. We need to understand what lies ahead<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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We have a ruling party that cares. We also need a responsible Opposition. And we need a passionate, yet unsentimental view of the challenges before us.</h4>
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A few years ago, when someone suggested that we had tried the Indian National Congress for so many years, but after its inaction post-Mumbai 2008 and the alleged greed and loot in UPA-2, we should try an alternative, this idea was rejected as preposterous. The suggestion that Narendra Modi could be that alternative was sniggered away as that of 'Modi Bhakts' — he was just not one of us, was the refrain; not only did he not speak English like us, leave alone like Shashi Tharoor, he did not even go to the right college.</div>
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End of conversation.</div>
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In the 2019 elections, India has voted for India, as<span> </span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3366ff; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><a href="https://twitter.com/republic/status/1130505293685612544" rel="nofollow" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3366ff; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Chitra Subramaniam remarked a few days ago</a></span>, or Indians voted as Indians, as Arif Mohammed Khan remarked in a TV programme recently. Look at it any way you want — India won.</div>
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This time, it was a vote by the aspirational, seeking for themselves and theirs as they had seen others enjoy the benefits of modernisation and all that signifies modernity. They saw in Narendra Modi a man as good as his word — they have seen hope. And women saw a chance at the restoration of their dignity. Of course, Narendra Modi has not succeeded in all that he promised — but full marks for trying to do as much as his government could. He did not succeed in some cases partly because we have an ossified delivery system that hoped that the Modi phenomenon was a Black Swan event and they could bide their time.</div>
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Life will be different now for them — and better for the people.</div>
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<img alt="modi-inside_061119035924.jpg" src="https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/sites/dailyo/story/embed/201906/modi-inside_061119035924.jpg" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; max-width: 600px; outline: none; padding: 0px;" title="modi-inside_061119035924.jpg" /><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">India wants him: India has voted for India. It's time the people's verdict was accepted with wisdom and grace. (Photo: Reuters)</strong></span></div>
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Our tormented liberals, however, continue to analyse vote counts by caste, religion and whatever.</div>
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This is what the British did to us: we are now a free country and about time we thought of ourselves as Indians. It is this colonial mindset that leads to reactions. For far too long, we have condemned our diversity instead of celebrating the unity in it — in practical terms, not as slogans. Some of our liberals refer to the values of Montesquieu’s political thoughts but they do not realise that Montesquieu hardly matters to a Kishan Pal from Banda or a Riaz Ahmed from Mewat when he casts his vote. Our liberals themselves have forgotten what Voltaire said about free speech and are not prepared to accept the alternative opinion. In any case, we may need to consider Thomas Hobbes’ observation — Before the names of just and unjust can have place, there must be some coercive power. In today’s context, coercive power means enforcement of law and order that is people-friendly and not an ogre.</div>
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Fortunately, the viewership of English channels in India is limited just as much as the dirge about Indian democracy we get from<span> </span><em style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">The Economist, The New York Times, Washington Post<span> </span></em>and<em style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><span> Time magazine</span></em>. Sadly, some of us contribute to these negative perceptions about India. For good governance, we need two essential political attributes: A ruling party that cares — we have that now — and we need a caring responsible opposition as well. One that goes beyond its limited vocabulary of<span> </span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3366ff; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/enough-evidence-to-prosecute-pm-modi-for-corruption-in-rafale-deal-rahul-gandhi-1471793-2019-03-06" rel="nofollow" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3366ff; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Rafale,</a><span> </span><a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/hindustan-ka-chowkidar-chor-hai-rahul-gandhi-calls-pm-modi-a-thief-in-rajasthan-1344775-2018-09-20" rel="nofollow" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3366ff; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Chowkidar</a></span><span> </span>and<span> </span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3366ff; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><a href="https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/kerala/modis-campaign-full-of-lies-poison-hatred-rahul/article27699656.ece" rel="nofollow" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3366ff; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Poison</a></span>, and a strategy beyond being<span> </span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3366ff; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><a href="https://scroll.in/latest/925575/congress-52-mps-are-enough-to-make-bjp-jump-every-day-says-rahul-gandhi" rel="nofollow" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3366ff; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">tigers</a><span> </span></span>in Parliament. They could begin by accepting the peoples' verdict graciously and not insulting both the people and the Constitution by endlessly whining.</div>
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Right now, it looks increasingly like the sulking behaviour of a person to the manor-born, whose manor has been snatched away by an ‘un-entitled’ person.</div>
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<img alt="rahul-rafale_061119041119.jpg" src="https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/sites/dailyo/story/embed/201906/rahul-rafale_061119041119.jpg" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; max-width: 600px; outline: none; padding: 0px;" title="rahul-rafale_061119041119.jpg" /><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">Flying Saucers: We now need an Opposition that goes beyond a limited vocabulary of Rafale, Chowkidar and Poison. (Photo: PTI)</strong></span></div>
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A responsible opposition abides by a sense of decorum and political correctness which this young 'un lacks. A responsible opposition is also required to be a watchdog and not an obstructionist to peoples’ aspirations, which is what mindless opposition eventually becomes. They could instead give an alternate vision and how they would realise this. People are no longer going to accept empty slogans of secularism and loan waivers as policy. So far, the NDA 2 government has not been gloating and seems to have got down to the business of governance from the first day in office.</div>
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Ideally — and ideals are not always easy to attain or maintain — there are many targets we need to achieve.</div>
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We should strive for a nationhood so strong that it needs no slogans, our security so strong that it lessens the need for so many para-militaries, our judicial system so strong that speedy justice is delivered to all and not the chosen few, our bureaucracy so strong that it is seen to be delivering good administration to the common person, and a law and order system so strong that it encourages people to seek shelter with the system and not be afraid.</div>
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Ideally, we should have a political system where the representatives are untainted and a media that is the true guardian of democracy and not doling out views as news.</div>
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Narendra Modi has miles to go and many promises to keep. He cannot do this alone. He needs the people to support him. In the next two decades, and this is not too far away, ours will be the third-largest economy. We shall be sitting at the same table as the US and China. This status will not be gifted to us — we have to strive for it and if we do, it is ours for the asking. It is also ours to lose if we falter. One would think that India should now have a declared National Security Doctrine that essentially states in its totality who we are, where we want to be, how do we get there and what will be the obstacles. </div>
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There will be the usual external security issues of terrorism, Pakistan’s inabilities to live as a normal country and until it does that, we need not change our stance or lower our vigil.</div>
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China’s ambitions are serious, long-term and global, and we are learning to handle this.</div>
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<img alt="modi-jinping-inside_031419115024.jpg" src="https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/sites/dailyo/story/embed/201903/modi-jinping-inside_031419115024.jpg" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; max-width: 600px; outline: none; padding: 0px;" title="modi-jinping-inside_031419115024.jpg" /><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">Learning to handle the Dragon: China's ambitions are huge. But now it recognises, so are India's. (Photo: Reuters)</strong></span></div>
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Undoubtedly, handling a would-be superpower on our un-demarcated borders requires special skills. We may have friendly relations with the US these days but it is not easy dealing with a superpower that is so self-centred. Mutuality of common strategic goals ends where the superpower goals become different and take precedence. There are no natural allies. We can take the case of the US-led sanctions on Iran, opposition to<span> </span><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3366ff; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/purchase-of-russian-s-400-to-curb-military-coop-us/articleshow/64363168.cms" rel="nofollow" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3366ff; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Indian purchase of Russian S-400 missiles</a></span><span> </span>with some of the pressure points on us or the various trade restrictions on us, as examples of these differences in perceptions.</div>
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Every issue becomes a matter of deals or trade-offs.</div>
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Therefore, the fine print is to be read carefully.</div>
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<img alt="modi-and-trump_061119040630.jpg" src="https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/sites/dailyo/story/embed/201906/modi-and-trump_061119040630.jpg" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; max-width: 600px; outline: none; padding: 0px;" title="modi-and-trump_061119040630.jpg" /><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">Read between the lines: Yes, we have friendly relations with the US but it is not easy dealing with a superpower. (Photo: Reuters)</strong></span></div>
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As we progress in the years ahead, our interests abroad will increase — for resources and markets. So will our responsibilities and the need for power projection. An advanced modernised armed force is one aspect of a highly technology-driven environment. So will the requirements of intelligence collection increase to include the wider definition of security in the age of Artificial Intelligence.</div>
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External security is one aspect of a rising power — internal cohesion is another. Left-wing extremism will remain a problem and Kashmir has to be solved, too. Both are internal problems and there is no solution without first controlling the violence. Any organisation or group that takes to the gun has no place in the Indian system — even more so if the cause is described to be religious. Negotiations with terrorists or with those who take to the gun without taking control of the situation amount to appeasement and will not lead to peace.</div>
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“Peace has enemies. Peace must be won by the gun,” is a statement of realism from John le Carré, devoid of any starry-eyed notions. There is now a new doctrine about how terror attacks sponsored from across will be handled — it is presumed, that Pakistan will be more circumspect.</div>
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The new cabinet also has a number of 'old hands' who distinguished themselves in the first term. Their experience in handling various infrastructure aspects would be invaluable in the next five years. The bureaucracy will now be more amenable as this government is here to stay, not only this term but also quite possibly the next term as well. The other aspect is technology, innovation and communication. We simply must stay ahead of the curve or we will miss the technological revolution that is taking place. If we miss it, and fail to encash on the youth dividend, we will be thrown back a few centuries. Local talent — of which there is no shortage — must be nurtured to the maximum and harvested smartly. The huge Indian talent that resides abroad must be drawn back to participate in the great Indian adventure. This has to be incentivised and the private sector has to play its role, be competitive and socially responsible.</div>
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The largest minority in India are women — nearly 50% of our population. Emancipate all and empower women to improve their status in life, educate them while ensuring good health for all to feel the difference in our entire country.</div>
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The people have chosen wisely by giving Narendra Modi another chance.</div>
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The alternative was too frightening, but mercifully never a serious one.</div>
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<br /><b style="background-color: white; font-family: Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Source: The Wire, 11th June 2019 </b></div>
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Vikram Soodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17532738573788654660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7334994418553245876.post-34164685730353942682019-04-30T14:36:00.001+05:302019-04-30T14:36:10.162+05:30Stop the Waffling: The Sri Lanka terror attack was definitively about religion. It was an Islamic attack on Christians. Why fudge the truth?<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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When Christchurch happened, the liberal reaction was loud and clear, but when Colombo happened, there was a deafening silence. Why are we so hesitant to call one stream of religious thought out?</h4>
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Islamist terror haunts the globe, from Manchester to Paris to Kabul through to Pulwama and Colombo. The perpetrators are indoctrinated and bigoted Islamists. Their bigotry, taught to them at their extremist universities, tells them there is only one God, he is Allah, and only those who believe in him must rule the world.</div>
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Those who do not accept this must be killed.</div>
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<img alt="srilanka-690_042919053033.jpg" src="https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/sites/dailyo/story/embed/201904/srilanka-690_042919053033.jpg" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; max-width: 600px; outline: none; padding: 0px;" title="srilanka-690_042919053033.jpg" /><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">Let's be clear: The perpetrators of the horrific Sri Lanka Easter terror attacks were indoctrinated Islamists. (Source: Reuters)</strong></span></div>
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Those who wish to live must either convert to Islam or pay jizia and live as dhimmies. This belief is the driving force for most Islamist terrorist activities across the world today and this belief draws adherents, regardless of economic status or education. Yet, some national silly-billies continue to spout the usual gibberish about terror having no religion. Terror can have a religion — and some terrorists themselves proclaim this.</div>
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It is not yet confirmed who committed this latest massacre although ISIS <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/sri-lanka-bombings-linked-to-new-zealand-mosque-shootings-government-says-11556009023" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #565656; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">claimed responsibility</a> two days after the attack. The ISIS Amaq News Agency stated that Islamic State fighters had carried out the attack on nationals of the Coalition and Christians in Sri Lanka. But the target was obvious — innocent Christians celebrating the resurrection of Christ.</div>
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This confirms that the target was selected on religious grounds. </div>
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Rukmini Callimachi, an American journalist who has extensively covered ISIS activities, recently commented that the attacks were sophisticated, with six sites attacked in three cities by seven terrorists.</div>
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All were successful, unlike those in Paris in 2015, where one terrorist killed only himself and the <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3366ff; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><a href="https://www.news18.com/news/world/paris-terror-attack-which-killed-130-people-may-reoccur-as-isis-plans-similar-strikes-across-europe-report-2102433.html" rel="nofollow" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3366ff; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">death toll from 10 attacks was 130</a></span> while that in Sri Lanka, fatalities were more than 250 and growing.</div>
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The ISIS disclosed the noms de guerre of the seven terrorists, and mentioned which one of them targeted the three churches separately. The video released by the ISIS is revealing — eight of these men pledge allegiance to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi against the backdrop of an ISIS flag.</div>
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<img alt="paris-690_042919053242.jpg" src="https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/sites/dailyo/story/embed/201904/paris-690_042919053242.jpg" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; max-width: 600px; outline: none; padding: 0px;" title="paris-690_042919053242.jpg" /><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">When they struck Paris: The 2015 attack in the French capital left nearly 130 people dead. (Source: Reuters)</strong></span></div>
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This does not mean that the ISIS either planned or carried out the attacks. It merely depicts a group advertising its allegiance to the ISIS and claiming instant global notoriety; more likely, they were inspired by ISIS but not directed by them.</div>
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This leaves Indian security agencies with a serious concern about similar radicalised groups in India.</div>
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There is also a distinct possibility of other terrorist groups, from Pakistan, claiming allegiance to ISIS — thus absolving Pakistan of any role in any future attacks in India. Considering that Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan had admitted some time ago that there was a need for Pakistan to create such terrorists at one time, but that need was over, assuming he has the authority to say so, and, the military, the intention to implement this, one is left wondering where these de-mobilised jihadis would go.</div>
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Colombo, April 21, was a replica of Mumbai, March 12, 1993 — except that the targets in Mumbai were mostly commercial. Over 250 are believed killed in this series of explosions in and near Colombo. Both attacks were born out of hatred. The Colombo attack selected churches and upmarket hotels to target local Christians and western tourists. Some now conveniently portray this as a revenge attack for the killings in Christchurch New Zealand, although the Colombo terrorist attack might have been planned much earlier.</div>
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<img alt="christchurch-690_042919053525.jpg" src="https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/sites/dailyo/story/embed/201904/christchurch-690_042919053525.jpg" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; max-width: 600px; outline: none; padding: 0px;" title="christchurch-690_042919053525.jpg" /><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">Some portray the Sri Lanka terror attacks as 'revenge' for the killings in Christchurch, New Zealand. (Source: AP)</strong></span></div>
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Sri Lankan authorities have arrested and killed other terrorists following shootouts as well as recovered lethal equipment, indicating a much larger conspiracy, which may even have extended beyond Sri Lanka.</div>
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There are claims by Sri Lankan intelligence that they had received inputs from a foreign intelligence agency about 10 days prior to the attack. The reasons why this intelligence was disregarded or ignored — even the highest in the land were not informed — is not known. There have been allusions to internal political differences that prevent a coherent approach to such threats. Sri Lanka seems to be operating in different silos where the Prime Minister is not even a member of the National Security Council.</div>
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The BBC attempted to give this carnage a different colour when it reportedly mentioned that this attack might have been carried out by Buddhists. This potentially damaging conjecture was proffered despite the fact that none of the recent terrorist attacks has been the handiwork of Buddhists but other fanatics. After Christchurch, commentary in the West clearly identified the victims as Muslims and the attackers, white supremacists, inspired by their ideology of racism and Islamophobia. After the Sri Lanka terror, only one of 20 world leaders, from Luxemburg, actually mentioned that the victims were Christians — not one of these leaders mentioned the word Islam.</div>
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It was the French President Emmanuel Macron speaking to the media on April 25 who <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3366ff; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><a href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/political-islam-seeks-secession-from-france-macron/1462978" rel="nofollow" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3366ff; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">remarked,</a></span> “Political Islam wants to secede from our republic” and that “We are talking about people who in the name of religion, pursue a political project.”</div>
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<img alt="emmanuel_043019095907.jpg" src="https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/sites/dailyo/story/embed/201904/emmanuel_043019095907.jpg" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; max-width: 600px; outline: none; padding: 0px;" title="emmanuel_043019095907.jpg" /><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">French President Emmanuel Macron has called out political Islam for acts of violence. (Photo: Reuters)</strong></span></div>
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When Christchurch happened, the liberal reaction was loud and clear — but when Colombo happened, there was a deafening silence. Rod Liddle was right when he <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3366ff; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><a href="https://spectator.us/ideology-christchurch-sri-lanka/" rel="nofollow" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3366ff; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">wrote in <em style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">The Spectator</em></a></span>, London, "The victim group was not named and nor was the ideology... Why should that be?"</div>
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The world led by western liberalism has got itself into a tangle over Islam and Islamophobia. What the west does, we in India tend to automatically follow. Therefore, it becomes difficult for this lot to state the truth that the Colombo attack was carried out against Christians by Muslims in the name of Islam.</div>
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For this lot, it would be Islamophobic to say so.</div>
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Instead, liberals assert that Islam is a religion of peace while terror in the name of Islam is the work of a few nut-jobs and extremists. It is true that there are extremely peaceful Muslims globally who abhor terror in their name — but there is another statistic that should worry us. </div>
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After the London terror attacks on July 7, 2005, a poll carried out in 2006 showed that one-fourth of British Muslims polled said the attacks were justified. Earlier, 37% of British Muslims felt that Jews were a legitimate target. A BBC poll in 2015 found that 45% of British respondents polled thought that those imams advocating violence were part of mainstream Islam. Extending this survey globally, Pew Research had found that only <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3366ff; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><a href="https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2014/05/02/support-for-al-qaeda-was-low-before-and-after-osama-bin-ladens-death/" rel="nofollow" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3366ff; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">57% of Muslims in the world disapproved of Al Qaeda</a></span>. This leaves a large number of Muslims who either approve of Al Qaeda or at least have no opinion. The gap between moderates and extremists may not be that wide and this should be a matter of great concern for all because we are talking of millions of Muslims who approve of Al Qaeda — or even ISIS.</div>
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The presence of National Thowheeth Jamath (NTJ) in Tamil Nadu, and its affiliates in different parts of the world, needs to be closely watched with renewed international cooperation.</div>
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Its links with ISIS should be under a microscope.</div>
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At the same time, we need to be careful about blindly assuming that ISIS exists in our region. Seasoned intelligence officers like Amrullah Saleh, former chief of Afghan intelligence, have been consistent in asserting there is no ISIS in Afghanistan; all that has happened is that the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan has assumed this cover for its activities inside Afghanistan to reduce international allegations against Pakistan of interference in the country.</div>
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For Pakistan, attribution of terror to ISIS and/or Al Qaeda is a convenient camouflage that delivers desired results in India and Afghanistan — and they do not even have to issue any denials about their involvement.</div>
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As in the case of both the three Mumbai attacks in 1993, 2006 and 2008, and now, in Colombo, there must have been considerable and meticulous planning. The recruitment, indoctrination and training of the suicide bombers must have taken some time. There must have been severe restrictions on security and protection of the trainee bombers. The source of material, manufacture of the explosive vests, funding the venture and venue for the training would need an organisation operating with utmost secrecy — over months.</div>
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<img alt="mumbai-690_042919053750.jpg" src="https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/sites/dailyo/story/embed/201904/mumbai-690_042919053750.jpg" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; max-width: 600px; outline: none; padding: 0px;" title="mumbai-690_042919053750.jpg" /><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">Much like the Mumbai attacks of 2008, there was meticulous planning behind the Sri Lanka Easter attack of 2019. (Source: Reuters)</strong></span></div>
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There must have been some dry runs to select the targets. Conceivably, there is an external dimension. So, connections in Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia, where the ISIS boasts its “East Asia Province”, the Maldives, Pakistan, Afghanistan, KSA and UAE would need to be ascertained. Sri Lankans, many from the well-educated and elite sections, had joined ISIS in Syria while other Sri Lankans work in large numbers in the Gulf countries where recruitment and indoctrination is possible. There have been reports that some of the wealthy Ibrahim family members were indoctrinated while studying in Australia. The Sri Lanka NTJ, a radical Muslim group, was linked to the destruction of Buddhist temples last year.</div>
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The discovery of a huge terror plot close to our borders — and possible linkages in south India — should be a concern to the security establishment in India. In the short term, central intelligence agencies (Intelligence Bureau, Research and Analysis Wing and National Technical Research Organisation) would have to be alert and work in close coordination — but it is vital that the state intelligence agencies, where the effect of terrorist action will be, are ahead of the curve.</div>
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Media speculation and revelations should be avoided as these alert terrorists. The tendency to claim successes or foreknowledge defeats counter-terror efforts. TRPs may be good for business — but they can be disastrous for the security of the nation. The Sri Lankans also showed that while they slipped badly on acting on advance intelligence, their reaction to the attack was immediate and professional.</div>
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It is important that in the aftermath of an attack, the state is seen to be in control, speculation and loose talk is avoided, apart from taking care of the casualties; there should be only one spokesperson who replies and briefs media at regular events. It is always better to avoid taking questions until more authentic information about an incident is available. Our record on this in the past has been less than perfect.</div>
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But these short term quick-fix solutions will not solve security problems. Terror is a long term security problem — it is international in effect, multi-lingual and multinational in content. Subject expertise built over years is necessary; overnight batsmen will not help. Additionally, terrorism will get even more dependent on high-end technology. Intelligence agencies need these skills — in huge numbers now — to manage these threats.</div>
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Source : DailyO, 30th April 2019 </div>
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Vikram Soodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17532738573788654660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7334994418553245876.post-66727558079959414022019-03-06T12:45:00.000+05:302019-03-06T12:45:10.170+05:30Rafale: The deal is kosher, politics over it is not. The price we are paying is national security<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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The political ambitions of a few could potentially derail the Indian defence purchase mechanism for a long time to come. This will delight our nation's adversaries.</h4>
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After a quiet of some weeks over this, the controversy over the Rafale deal has picked up once again. It is time to put this in perspective here.</div>
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Rafale is not like Bofors or <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3366ff; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/special-report/story/19900228-st-kitts-scandal-probe-reveals-murky-tale-of-high-level-involvement-813705-1990-03-01" rel="nofollow" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3366ff; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">St Kitts</a></span>, which had money and paper trails. Rafale has no money trail — because money did not change hands. The paper trails are only conjectures, and allegations of corruption at the top are figments of imagination. There is considerable media hype about Rafale, but there is an alternative truth away from mainstream media.</div>
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The Rafale is a world-class aircraft — and it is just what the Indian Air Force urgently needs. It is already at least a decade overdue, thanks to the delaying tactics of the previous government. Maybe they were under some compulsions that prevented any decision, and the country’s security, therefore, took a back seat.</div>
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<img alt="Rafale is a world-class aircraft. And our Air Force is still waiting for it. " src="https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/sites/dailyo/story/embed/201902/rafale_021219085008_021419062900.jpg" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; max-width: 600px; outline: none; padding: 0px;" title="rafale_021219085008_021419062900.jpg" /><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">Rafale is a world-class aircraft. And our Air Force is still waiting for it. (Photo: PTI/file)</strong></span></div>
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Prior to the last fortnight's events, the recent farcical debates about the Rafale deal in the Lok Sabha were not about public interest or to delivering any common benefit. They were apparently more about seeking revenge and fulfilling fading personal ambitions.</div>
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Many see the next election as their last chance to take back the throne of Raisina; good governance is not the aim. The poor must remain poor. The illiterate must remain so, and the sick and unwell have no right to good healthcare.</div>
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Today, the narrative of Rafale ‘corruption’ has thus replaced the earlier narrative of secularism and <em style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">garibi hatao</em> (eradicate poverty). </div>
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Narratives do not have to depend on truth. But, more than anything else, democracy and national security are being jeopardised at the altar of the political ambitions of a few.</div>
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Much has been made of the Rs 30,000-crore offsets and the endlessly repeated allegation is that this money was handed over to one industrialist. Since there are about 100 Indian entities who would be participating in manufacturing the aircraft, which itself has four French partners, the offsets due to each of the Indian manufacturers will be much less. The payments will be from this corpus set aside, and available only after due process.</div>
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It is unfortunate that sections of the media meanwhile chose to dramatise <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3366ff; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/not-undermining-hal-but-need-to-look-at-reality-nirmala-sitharaman/articleshow/66142017.cms" rel="nofollow" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3366ff; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">a file noting</a></span> that was only partially displayed, reportedly cropping the final remarks of the defence minister on the same page. This regular deluge of our secret reports must be worrisome. Surely, the government will be looking into this to determine how and where these leaks were even taking place, but that is a separate issue. Those doing this realise that the stakes are very high for everyone, including those who were leaking the documents.</div>
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<img alt="Does the note really reveal all that it has been claimed to?" src="https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/sites/dailyo/story/embed/201902/note-inside_021419063054.jpg" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; max-width: 600px; outline: none; padding: 0px;" title="note-inside_021419063054.jpg" /><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">RM's remarks were the final word. (Photo: ANI)</strong></span></div>
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The initiator of the note was a deputy secretary. It is common knowledge that there are several levels above a deputy secretary, who will usually record their comments, agreeing or otherwise. In this case, the note ended with the Defence Minister.</div>
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Thus, what the deputy secretary writes is not gospel. Whenever there is an issue that involves more than one ministry, and is of considerable importance, the PMO is a useful place to sort out matters and keep all involved on the same page. The PMO would be the natural coordinator in this case. </div>
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There have also been uninformed references to sovereign guarantees relating to India and France. It would be useful to see Para 71 of the <a href="http://cgda.nic.in/pdf/DPP2013.pdf" rel="nofollow" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #565656; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3366ff; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">document</span> </a><em style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">Defence Procurement Procedure 2013,</em> which states, “There may be occasions when procurements would have to be done from friendly foreign countries which may be necessitated due to geo-strategic advantages that are likely to accrue to our country. Such procurements would not classically follow the Standard Procurement Procedure and the Standard Contract Document but would be based on mutually agreed provisions by the Governments of both the countries. Such procurements will be done based on an Inter Government Agreement after clearance from CFA.”</div>
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The Rafale deal was an inter government agreement. This 361-page document elucidates further procedures in detail.</div>
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In this controversy, there seems to be a dangerous coalition of inimical forces and armaments middlemen who mostly do shady deals.</div>
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If the practice of the present government succeeds, then these ‘businessmen’ are going to be out of business for a long time.</div>
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But this needless and coarse bickering could lead to the collapse of the Indian defence purchase mechanism — and our adversaries would be delighted.<strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"> </strong></div>
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Original manufacturers of military equipment will be wary of doing deals with India.</div>
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More than that, the attacks on our institutions, or doubting their credibility, will do them irreparable damage.</div>
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The Supreme Court’s verdict on the Rafale issue was that there was nothing incorrect in the pricing and procedures, but this was not acceptable to the Opposition.</div>
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<img alt="Theatrics is not reasonable, responsible debate. There is a time and place for both. " src="https://akm-img-a-in.tosshub.com/sites/dailyo/story/embed/201902/hug690_072118055650_021419063304.jpg" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; max-width: 600px; outline: none; padding: 0px;" title="hug690_072118055650_021419063304.jpg" /><span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: black; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><strong style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">Theatrics is not reasonable, responsible debate — there is a time and place for both. (Photo: Twitter)</strong></span></div>
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Reasonable debate in Parliament has been replaced with invective and disrespect for the Prime Minister. The Comptroller and Auditor General’s recent report on Rafale was described as not worth the paper on which it was written. Constant jibes at the Armed Forces compelled the Air Force chief and his deputy to intercede and explain why the deal is kosher. Despite endless clarifications by the chief negotiator of the Indian negotiating team, including <span style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3366ff; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;"><a href="https://bharatshakti.in/in-the-g2g-contract-for-rafale-we-got-most-potent-weapons-says-air-marshal-sbp-sinha/" rel="nofollow" style="box-sizing: border-box; color: #3366ff; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">one to</a></span> <em style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: none; padding: 0px;">Bharat Shakti</em>, the campaign has continued, disregarding all reasonable evidence. </div>
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The French President had clarified and separately, the chief of Dassault too has done a lengthy TV interview. </div>
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Finally, the Office of the Prime Minister is an important and useful part of our system, and attempts to damage this would damage the entire system of governance.</div>
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A hug and a wink do not make for smart politics. The other tragedy is that the Opposition has now boarded a train that hurtles downhill without a driver and brakes.</div>
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So, what price security?</div>
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Source : DailyO, 4th march 2019 </div>
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Vikram Soodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17532738573788654660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7334994418553245876.post-58385393567270517172019-03-02T13:14:00.001+05:302019-03-02T13:14:25.159+05:30They were mirages. And they were real<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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What has happened in Balakot is a punitive strike against known camps of terrorists — especially Jaish-e-Mohammed.</div>
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It is still early days to predict what will happen now, in the next few days or weeks, despite Imran Khan's carefully edited machismo on TV. Real wars are fought on the ground, not in TV studios. Narendra Modi has been as good as his word. If Pakistan's generals do retaliate, we are looking at escalation.</div>
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One can be certain that the Indian security apparatus must have weighed all the consequences of a punitive strike as the one carried out by the IAF on 26 February.</div>
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Maybe the Pakistani deep state miscalculated when it allowed the terror strike in Pulwama.</div>
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One wonders how major global and regional powers will react to this new-found Indian determination to hit back against repeated Pakistani provocation.</div>
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In December 2001, after the attack on the Indian Parliament, political leaders from major western countries including the <a href="http://www.indiandefencereview.com/spotlights/to-the-brink-2001-02-india-pakistan-standoff/" rel="nofollow noopener" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0069a6; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">US rushed to New Delhi, pleading for Indian restraint</a> in return for an assurance that Pakistan will be asked to control terrorism. Instead, General Musharraf delivered an ambivalent statement on 12 January 2002 — and followed it up with a terror attack in Kalu Chak. India mobilised its army on our western border and we went into a period of coercive diplomacy.</div>
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Soon, perhaps too soon, we were back to diplomacy — which had limited success till its collapse in November 2008. It remains to be seen if our friends among the major powers, especially China, whose advice Pakistan takes as gospel, will send their representatives to Rawalpindi to say that the Indians are justifiably angry and have reacted to the dire provocation from Pakistan. Any armed or military reaction from Pakistan would be courting disaster and be seen as defending a universally outlawed terror outfit.</div>
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<span style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0069a6; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">It remains to be seen if our friends among the major powers, especially China, whose advice Pakistan takes as gospel, will send their representatives to Rawalpindi to say that the Indians are justifiably angry and have reacted to the dire provocation from Pakistan.</span></div>
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What has happened in Balakot is a punitive strike against known camps of terrorists — especially Jaish-e-Mohammed. Indian security planners must have factored in possible Pakistani reactions of the kind they would have done after the Uri strike in September 2016. No one would have seriously discarded Imran Khan's threat as empty rhetoric — immediately after the attack in Pulwama, Pakistani soldiers had been sent to various JeM madrassas and training centres in Bahawalpur for their protection. Instead, the Indian reaction was at some distance in Balakot. Since Pakistan is bristling with terrorist camps and terrorists, how many troops will it deploy to protect these camps and their inmates all over the country?</div>
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All along, Pakistan has assumed that India will only threaten about not tolerating terror attacks in the future and revert to diplomacy after some time. It has seen terror as a useful foreign policy option — if not to wrest Kashmir from India, then at least to try and keep India from becoming a major power. For years, I have been saying in my writings that other countries will react depending on how they see us protecting our national interests — if they see our reactions as weak or easily conciliatory, they will react accordingly and make the customary statements. Only if we react with firmness and vigour will we be taken seriously by the rest of the world. There may not be public accolades — but there will be an acknowledgement that we mean business.</div>
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The last time I made this point, that we have to be aggressive, was in Hyderabad (17 February 2019) and then in Bengaluru (23 February). Balakot is, in that sense, a positive step forward. Deterrence, as a friend observed recently, is like justice — it has to be seen and not just done.</div>
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All this will not bring terrorism to an end.</div>
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<span style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0069a6; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">All along, Pakistan has assumed that India will only threaten about not tolerating terror attacks in the future and revert to diplomacy after some time. It has seen terror as a useful foreign policy option — if not to wrest Kashmir from India, then at least to try and keep India from becoming a major power.</span></div>
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Terrorism is like crime; we can have all the laws and all the security measures — but there will be slippages. Terrorism has to be managed and minimised. Attacks will happen again chiefly because it is in the nature of the Pakistani state, where delinquency with its neighbours Afghanistan, Iran and India, is now its DNA.</div>
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Meanwhile, there are steps the Indian state must take.</div>
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The first immediate step is to ensure hoodlums do not take over the street and translate anger and patriotism to attacks on innocent Kashmiris and Muslims. This will lead to permanent damage to our national fibre. This is what Pakistan hopes will happen. Therefore, the Prime Minister and his cabinet must personally ensure that motor-mouths in their party are made to keep quiet and others are curbed with a heavy hand. Patriotism or nationalism are not the prerogative of any one religion or community — besides, it would be utter folly to convert our present advantage into a disadvantage.</div>
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<span style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0069a6; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Terrorism is like crime; we can have all the laws and all the security measures — but there will be slippages. Terrorism has to be managed and minimised.</span></div>
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The second step, of ignoring Pakistan, has already begun. This must be in totality — and not with the usual provisos and exceptions. This means no visas across the board, travel advisories to Indians, no trade, sports and cultural exchanges. We have already taken steps to utilise waters from the three lower rivers in accordance with the Indus Waters Treaty by commencing construction of three dams to divert additional rainwater to Punjab and J&K. <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/punjab-and-jammu-kashmir-agree-to-resume-work-on-shahpur-kandi-dam-project/articleshow/65735190.cms" rel="nofollow noopener" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0069a6; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Work on Shahpur Kandi dam has already begun</a> following the Uri attack in 2016.</div>
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Humanitarian acts must regrettably take a back seat when national security interests are involved. This must continue until Pakistan learns to behave like a normal neighbour.</div>
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Since this war (in reality, this is what it has been since 1947) is going to last a while, we need to seriously think long-term about a two-front defence. All skills, equipment and technology for the armed forces, paramilitaries and intelligence have to be upgraded. This preparation and acquisition will have to be sustained across political barriers. Anything less will help the adversary — and it is indeed unfortunate that some politicians fail to understand this when they try to undermine the Rafale deal hoping for political gains.</div>
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The war is going to be long, but if Pakistan changes its mind and talks peace, it must show intent. It must call off its jihadi hordes and dismantle the terror apparatus. Having done that, if it still wants to talk about Kashmiri human rights, then we must talk of the Pashtun and Baloch human rights.</div>
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The citizen and the media would understand that this long war requires their support, not just unending inquests. Terrorism is particularly ugly — and any sympathy to terrorist only helps terrorism, heightens fear and delays success. A disciplined and responsive citizenry reduces cost of and to internal security.</div>
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Finally, there should be some fact finding about Pulwama — not for retribution but for the correction of mistakes for the future.</div>
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Source : ORF website , 27th February 2019 </div>
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Vikram Soodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17532738573788654660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7334994418553245876.post-80587497355225237702019-03-02T13:13:00.000+05:302019-03-02T13:13:10.893+05:30Pulwama attack: In anger and anguish<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Terrorist attacks of this nature do not happen overnight. They take time to organise and plan.</div>
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<img alt=" suicide bomber, Pulwama, Pulwama terror attack, Pulwama attack, JeM, Vikram Sood, Afghan peace talks, legitimisation, CRPF, Kartarpur, Taliban, Hizbul Mujahideen, LeT, Kashmir, Pakistan, FATF, Masood Azhar, Lashkar-e-Tayyaba, social media, Uri, Nagrota" class="imgopcity" height="450" id="image" src="https://www.orfonline.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Indian-Army-in-Kashmir-PTI.jpg" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; opacity: 0; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; visibility: hidden;" width="100%" /></div>
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Source: PTI/File Photo</div>
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This is being written in anger and anguish.</div>
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One truck in a convoy of 70 trucks was attacked by a suicide bomber in an assault that has killed <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/pulwama-terror-attack-live-updates/liveblog/67995389.cms" rel="nofollow noopener" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0069a6; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">at least 37 CRPF jawan</a>s. The terrorist, an indigenous Kashmiri, had rammed his explosives-laden car into the lead truck. More will die, as their conditions are critical.</div>
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This attack is bigger than Uri, and Jaish-e-Mohammed, Pakistan’s current favourite in Jammu and Kashmir, was quick to claim responsibility.</div>
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But will these deaths become yet another statistic in our endless war against terror?</div>
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Lt. General (retd) Amjad Shoaib, who was Director, Military Intelligence of the Pakistan Army for some time, was speaking in an interview three months ago with the well-known Pakistani TV commentator Hamid Mir. The General had predicted that <a href="http://voiceofpakistan.com.pk/video/show/77107/voiceOfPakistan.html" rel="nofollow noopener" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0069a6; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">suicide bombings by Kashmiris</a> would inevitably be the next stage of terrorism in Kashmir. His argument was that once the Kashmiri youth realised that the only way forward was to kill and be killed, he would resort to this.</div>
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Kartarpur was a charade, a red herring. This is Pakistan’s usual pattern of one step forward, two steps back. The deep state has again retaliated, especially when Imran Khan said he and the Pakistan army were on the same page and we were exulting at the prospect of an outbreak of peace. Therefore, Kartarpur has been countered with Pulwama. There have been several similar episodes in India-Pakistan relations in the past. Prime Minister Vajpayee did the Lahore Bus Yatra - and the Pakistanis organised the hijacking of IC 814 in December 1999. <a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/pm-modi-briefly-meets-nawaz-sharif-in-ufa-281631-2015-07-09" rel="nofollow noopener" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0069a6; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Narendra Modi met Nawaz Sharif</a> in Ufa, Russia, on July 5, 2015 and Nawaz came away without mentioning Kashmir. This had to be ‘rectified’ and there was a terrorist attack in Gurdaspur. Undeterred, <a href="https://www.rediff.com/news/report/surprise-modi-to-drop-in-for-nawazs-birthday-in-lahore/20151225.htm" rel="nofollow noopener" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0069a6; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Narendra Modi paid a surprise visit </a>to Lahore to attend Nawaz’s granddaughter’s wedding in December 2015. The Deep State frowned at this camaraderie and we had a terrorist attack in <a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/pathankot-attack-head-of-air-base-j-s-dhamoon-seeks-premature-retirement/articleshow/59247520.cms" rel="nofollow noopener" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0069a6; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">Pathankot in January 2016</a>.</div>
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<span style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0069a6; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">Kartarpur was a charade, a red herring. This is Pakistan’s usual pattern of one step forward, two steps back.</span></div>
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Then there was the Uri terror strike in <a href="https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/uri-attack-inside-story-pashtun-map-pakistani-ammunition-jash-e-mohammed-341761-2016-09-18" rel="nofollow noopener" style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0069a6; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none; transition: color 0.3s ease 0s; vertical-align: baseline;" target="_blank">September 2016</a>, followed by an Indian punitive strike ten days later — and Pakistan responded with a terror attack in Nagrota in November that year.</div>
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The more favoured terrorist group in Kashmir for the Pakistan establishment currently being JeM, this is probably signaling its coming of age in the Valley.</div>
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Lashkar-e-Tayyaba (LeT) is currently deployed elsewhere — and may be helping the Taliban in Afghanistan. Let us not forget that Masood Azhar, the JeM leader, was in our custody till we let him go, following the IC 814 hijack in agreement to demands from the terrorists in December 1999.</div>
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More such attacks are possible.</div>
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Terrorist attacks of this nature do not happen overnight. They take time to organise and plan.</div>
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There will, therefore, be several questions about the how and why of this attack. An attack on the main highway, in broad daylight, against a convoy must have taken some planning; there must have been advance information and the terrorist had minute-to-minute information about the convoy’s movement. He would have selected a precise location from where to move and strike. They had the capability to put together an attack at short notice. He was not alone in the planning and somebody acquired the explosives. The terrorist must have been familiar with the terrain and confident of travelling. Also, someone should ask — why move so many vehicles together, what were the reasons and security precautions.</div>
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<span style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0069a6; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">There will be several questions about the how and why of this attack. An attack on the main highway, in broad daylight, against a convoy must have taken some planning; there must have been advance information and the terrorist had minute-to-minute information about the convoy’s movement.</span></div>
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Terrorist attacks of this nature do not happen overnight. They take time to organise and plan. After the Burhan Wani encounter, the LeT and Hizbul Mujahideen came to an agreement and started running joint operations and sharing logistics. The alliance was mutually beneficial as LeT gained easy access and movement in the villages of South Kashmir. JeM was on its own. One factor that set JeM apart from the Hizbul Mujahideen was their reliance on social media — both LeT and Jaish terrorists have made good use of social media for propaganda and luring more recruits.</div>
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However, in the last few months, the social media presence of the JeM grew rapidly. JeM forums began using encrypted messengers spinning out propaganda videos, audios and literature, particularly its weekly newspaper and books written by Masood Azhar. Jaish started claiming responsibility for its attacks through these encrypted chat messages. These chat forums appear to be a part of an unbridled PR machinery to gain popular support which the group has always lacked.</div>
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Another important signal that probably has gone unnoticed.</div>
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<span style="background: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0069a6; font-family: inherit; font-style: inherit; font-weight: inherit; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">In the last few months, the social media presence of the JeM grew rapidly. JeM forums began using encrypted messengers spinning out propaganda videos, audios and literature, particularly its weekly newspaper and books written by Masood Azhar. Jaish started claiming responsibility for its attacks through these encrypted chat messages.</span></div>
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Local Kashmiri recruits have so far been fairly unsuccessful in inflicting terror, mostly because of poor training and inadequate resources. These recruits could hardly sustain themselves for a few minutes during attacks and encounters. Another unnoticed trend has been the fading away of LeT in the Kashmir valley after Pakistan was put on the FATF list. The international fame of LeT does certainly not help Pakistan in its attempts to get off the FATF greylist. This explains why the JeM has made a quiet entry into the Kashmir Valley and with this latest startling attack, made its intentions of becoming a nightmare for the Indian security establishment, which the home-grown Hizbul Mujahideen failed to do.</div>
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While we will hear loud proclamations from politicians of being “hard on terror” and the mandatory chest thumping for killing of “highest number of militants” will continue, a new game is unravelling in the Valley.</div>
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The Afghan peace talks and the legitimisation of the Taliban will certainly add to the complications now.</div>
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<b>Source: ORF Website, 15th February 2019 </b></div>
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Vikram Soodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17532738573788654660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7334994418553245876.post-36874581640427600752019-03-02T13:10:00.001+05:302019-03-02T13:10:17.737+05:30Pakistan, and not just its 'non-State actors', are responsible for Pulwama attack <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><i><b>The way it is currently configured, Pakistan is unlikely to to mend itself any time in the foreseeable future. </b></i></span></span><br style="background-attachment: initial; background-clip: initial; background-image: initial; background-origin: initial; background-position: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-size: initial; font-family: Arial; font-size: 12px; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;" /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background: white;">It is not always easy to provide commentary on an episode that is still unfolding. Besides, there is so much ‘knowledgeable’ (sic) chatter in the media, with ‘both sides’ playing mind games, that it is difficult to do a reasonably accurate timeline. It’s certainly far more difficult than a running cricket commentary, especially with the Pakistanis not playing a ‘gentleman’s game’. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><span style="background: white;">They have not for the last 70 years, and they are not likely to in the foreseeable future. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><b><u>Backdoor Became Bigger </u></b></span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white;"><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">It is beyond Pakistan to understand that following the punitive strike by Indian forces against ‘terrorist launch pads’ on September 29, 2016, and the attack on Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) terror camps in Pakistan and Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK) on Wednesday, the entire game has changed. The shift is that each time there is a major terrorist strike now, there will be reprisals. The evolving situation will continue to have many variables and consequences. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="background: white;">The Indian Air Force (IAF) attack on JeM terror camps in Balakot, not far from where Osama bin Laden hid out in Abbottabad, was a magnificent professional operation that has most certainly embarrassed the military brass in Pakistan. The main enemy of Pakistan’s generals, and the raison d’être for their primacy in Pakistan had flown past their defences, reportedly hit their safe havens for terrorists and returned to safety. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="background: white;">It is quite possible that the Indian security and intelligence establishments had begun planning such reprisals even before the terror attack in Uri last September. There would be other plans stored away surely. All such plans would have been fine-tuned, and the possible costs of the reaction factored into the plans. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="background: white;">The Pakistani reaction of sending their air force into Jammu & Kashmir was, therefore, unlikely to have been a surprise in South Block. It is unfortunate that Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman found himself in Pakistani custody. And India should accept the announcement of Imran Khan of his release on Friday graciously. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="background: white;">We need not, however, lower our guard or rush into warm embraces. India’s media would do well to exercise some restraint and not pressure our government, as was done in the case of the IC-814 hijack in December 1999 that led to the unfortunate release of now JeM chief Masood Azhar among other terrorists. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="background: white;">Some Pakistani commentators have claimed that Prime Minister Imran Khan’s reaction to Narendra Modi’s angry and emotional speech was a calm, well-reasoned one, calling for restraint and peace. So was the reaction of the director general Inter-Services Public Relations - the Pakistani army’s mouthpiece - ‘of dignity and poise’. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="background: white;">Smug, one would add, considering that Pakistan is the only country that encourages terrorists to kill soldiers and civilians in all three of its neighbouring countries without reprisals. This has now changed. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /><span style="line-height: 107%;"><b>Heart Has Its Reasons</b><span style="background: white;"> </span></span><br /><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="background: white;">India now has only hard options. The world may not isolate Pakistan completely. But, at least, we need not continue with ‘normal’ behaviour and exchanges. Downgrading of diplomatic ties is just the beginning. If Pakistan’s heart burns for Kashmiris, ours should similarly burn for the Baloch, Pashtun and Sindhis, and we should show this in various ways. We expect our armed forces and paramilitaries to protect us and die for us because ‘it is their job’. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="background: white;">We ourselves shirk from making the smallest sacrifice. We must begin by willingly accepting the severance of all kinds of people-to-people contact, including in the ‘apolitical’ fields of sports, films and the arts. Trade links and diplomatic ties must be kept in abeyance. We need to insist that the International Cricket Council (ICC) ban Pakistan from playing in the next World Cup - and we know we have the means to force this. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="background: white;">Our media’s hyper-nationalism can be embarrassing. They must realise that one battle victory does not translate into a victory in war. The other side can react too, as it did. A little mellowing would make statements more credible. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="background: white;">Second, the way it is currently configured, Pakistan is not likely to be able to mend itself any time in the foreseeable future. It is irrevocably Islamic whose goal is ‘Ghazwa-e-Hind’ (Battle of India). Neither for the Islamists nor for the army is Kashmir an issue. That is the excuse — the narrative for the people at home to keep them poor and divided while rulers have free rein. This suits China as it extends its reach in the Arabian Sea using a servile Pakistan and keeping India off balance. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="background: white;">Third, let us try to get our own house in order. The situation in J&K today is a result of the policy mistakes we have made ever since we halted our troops on the banks of the Kishanganga in 1948. The Opposition has been making every issue a ‘Modi vs Us’ one. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /><span style="line-height: 107%;"><span style="background: white;">‘Pulwama’ has been politicised. Instead, Opposition leaders should pick up a thing or two from All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) MP Asaduddin Owaisi’s speech in Mumbai on February 22 where he linked Pakistan — and not just the JeM — to Pulwama, and demanded the Pakistani establishment to drop its ‘mask of innocence’. He spoke for India. </span></span></span><br />
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<b><u><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Source: Economic Times 1st March 2019 </span></u></b></div>
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Vikram Soodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17532738573788654660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7334994418553245876.post-13590095098268046782018-12-29T11:54:00.001+05:302018-12-29T11:54:15.623+05:30Warning bells: If US troops exit Kabul, and the Taliban holds sway, Pakistan could unleash 'Ghazwa-e-Hind' against India<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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We could soon see America leave Afghanistan's brutal war half-finished. The implications of this will be dreadful for ordinary Afghans. This is no good news for India either.</div>
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Nearly forty years ago, on Christmas Day in 1979, Soviet tanks and troops were airlifted into Kabul — in what became a bloody battle between ‘godless’ Communists on one side, and Islamic mujahedeen backed by the West, Pakistan, the Emirates and Saudi Arabia on the other. </div>
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If the 1980s were the years of what ultimately came to be known as the Afghan jihad, the 1990s were the years of civil war, with the Taliban triumphant in Kabul.</div>
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The 21st century has seen the results of an unending US-led ‘Global War on Terror’, located in Afghanistan, among other Muslim countries. The Afghans were punished for their location — while Pakistan rewarded for its. This also makes it the longest war that any country has faced in modern times.</div>
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Today, most people, when they talk about the situation in Afghanistan, also refer to it as ‘<span style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-21/pentagon-plan-troop-pullout-from-afghanistan/10646714" rel="nofollow" style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0883ed; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;" target="_blank">America's longest war</a></span>’. No one really considers that the helpless Afghan population has been subjected to an endless war, which has inflicted unimaginable deprivation and depredation for nearly 40 years.</div>
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<amp-img alt="afghan-inside_122718085951.jpg" class="i-amphtml-element i-amphtml-layout-responsive i-amphtml-layout-size-defined i-amphtml-layout" height="425" layout="responsive" src="https://smedia2.intoday.in/dailyo/story/embed/201812/afghan-inside_122718085951.jpg" style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; overflow: hidden !important; padding: 0px; position: relative;" width="650"><i-amphtml-sizer style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; display: block !important; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 474.688px 0px 0px;"></i-amphtml-sizer><img alt="afghan-inside_122718085951.jpg" class="i-amphtml-fill-content i-amphtml-replaced-content" decoding="async" src="https://smedia2.intoday.in/dailyo/story/embed/201812/afghan-inside_122718085951.jpg" style="border: none !important; bottom: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: block; height: 0px; left: 0px; margin: auto; max-height: 100%; max-width: 100%; min-height: 100%; min-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px !important; position: absolute; right: 0px; top: 0px; width: 0px;" /></amp-img><span style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><strong style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;">For 40 years, Afghanistan has been in the throes of a war it's gained nothing from. (Photo: AP/file)</strong></span></div>
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Afghans have been punished for being on the crossroads of superpower rivalry, and for no fault of theirs, while the narrative has been that these wars were for their ‘liberation’ from the Communists in the 1980s, and ‘emancipation’ during the dark days of the Taliban and Al Qaeda in the 21st century.</div>
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The WTC attack in New York was by Saudis mostly. The Taliban were sheltering Al Qaeda — and the Pakistan Deep State was sheltering and assisting the Taliban.</div>
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Afghanistan was the only place where an angered America could afford to exhibit its wrath.</div>
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Americans fought in the wrong place, Afghanistan, with wrong and inadequate means. They were helped by a ‘major non-NATO ally’ — as President Bush <span style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><a href="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/3814013.stm" rel="nofollow" style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0883ed; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;" target="_blank">referred to Pakistan</a></span>, which was double-crossing them even as the Americans paid handsomely in billions of dollars for this duplicity.</div>
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There were never enough troops on the ground to defeat and hold territory gained.</div>
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Wars were fought from the comfort of air-conditioned consoles thousands of miles away — where soundless blips on LED screens show collateral damage, but do not record the pain, nor ensure victory.</div>
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Excessive reliance on aerial power means that the situation on the ground is adverse and the military situation is in a stalemate. A superpower cannot afford to be in a stalemate, for this actually means defeat.</div>
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No wonder today, the Americans <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/13/world/asia/us-talks-taliban-afghanistan.html" rel="nofollow" style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0883ed; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;" target="_blank"><span style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;">are negotiating</span> </a>with the Taliban — whom they had sworn to eliminate — for a safe and honourable exit for US forces from Afghanistan.</div>
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<amp-img alt="troops-inside_122718090116.jpg" class="i-amphtml-element i-amphtml-layout-responsive i-amphtml-layout-size-defined i-amphtml-layout" height="425" layout="responsive" src="https://smedia2.intoday.in/dailyo/story/embed/201812/troops-inside_122718090116.jpg" style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; overflow: hidden !important; padding: 0px; position: relative;" width="650"><i-amphtml-sizer style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; display: block !important; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 474.688px 0px 0px;"></i-amphtml-sizer><img alt="troops-inside_122718090116.jpg" class="i-amphtml-fill-content i-amphtml-replaced-content" decoding="async" src="https://smedia2.intoday.in/dailyo/story/embed/201812/troops-inside_122718090116.jpg" style="border: none !important; bottom: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: block; height: 0px; left: 0px; margin: auto; max-height: 100%; max-width: 100%; min-height: 100%; min-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px !important; position: absolute; right: 0px; top: 0px; width: 0px;" /></amp-img><span style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><strong style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;">There were never enough American troops on the ground to defeat and hold territory gained. (Photo: Reuters/File)</strong></span></div>
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The effect of this decision on other regional players is assumed to be of little consequence.</div>
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This is a clear exhibition of the ‘America First’ policy of President Donald Trump. Meanwhile, Trump, possibly pursuing a declared (April 20, 2019) date for a negotiated settlement, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-administration-is-considering-substantial-afghan-troop-drawdown-11545341452" rel="nofollow" style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0883ed; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;" target="_blank"><span style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;">suddenly announced</span> </a>partial troop reduction even as his representative was speaking to the Taliban and the violence continued unabated. A suicide attack — this year’s 22nd attack in Kabul — accompanied by an attack via unknown terrorists <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-25/kabul-government-building-attack/10667750" rel="nofollow" style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0883ed; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;" target="_blank"><span style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;">killed 40 persons</span> </a>in Kabul on December 25.</div>
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The Taliban denied any responsibility for this attack, so suspicion would then be on the Islamic State, which is believed to be increasing its profile in Afghanistan.</div>
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According to The Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) cited by Afghanistan-watcher Frud Bezhan, a journalist with the Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFERL), there have been 44,655 fatalities in Afghanistan from January 1 to December 8, 2019.</div>
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These include civilians, government forces and militants. This places Afghanistan ahead of Yemen and Syria — yet, the narrative is about the latter two, even in India.</div>
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As the security situation in Afghanistan worsened and the Taliban gained territory, with the US unable to put more soldiers on the ground, this year the US dropped more bombs than in any other year of this war. Withdrawal of ground forces will only mean greater reliance on air attacks.</div>
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The cycle of violence increased early in 2018 as the rivalry between the Taliban and the Islamic State spilled out on the streets of Kabul. Dr. Shanthie Mariet D'Souza wrote (<span style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><a href="http://mantraya.org/analysis-afghanistan-battle-of-narratives-power-contestations-cycles-of-violence/" rel="nofollow" style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0883ed; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;" target="_blank">Mantraya Analysis, #22 February 22</a></span>, 2018) that although the government played down these incidents, the insurgents were successful in getting renewed international media attention in this battle of the narratives.</div>
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The Taliban also stepped up their activities because of an inadequate government response. The Taliban were now “a decentralised rural insurgency with undiminished ability to target urban centres”. Estimates about how much territory is under Taliban control vary, but it is substantial — even up to 40%.</div>
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<amp-img alt="guard-inside_122718090611.jpg" class="i-amphtml-element i-amphtml-layout-responsive i-amphtml-layout-size-defined i-amphtml-layout" height="425" layout="responsive" src="https://smedia2.intoday.in/dailyo/story/embed/201812/guard-inside_122718090611.jpg" style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; overflow: hidden !important; padding: 0px; position: relative;" width="650"><i-amphtml-sizer style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; display: block !important; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 474.688px 0px 0px;"></i-amphtml-sizer><img alt="guard-inside_122718090611.jpg" class="i-amphtml-fill-content i-amphtml-replaced-content" decoding="async" src="https://smedia2.intoday.in/dailyo/story/embed/201812/guard-inside_122718090611.jpg" style="border: none !important; bottom: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: block; height: 0px; left: 0px; margin: auto; max-height: 100%; max-width: 100%; min-height: 100%; min-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px !important; position: absolute; right: 0px; top: 0px; width: 0px;" /></amp-img><span style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><strong style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;">Afghan security forces at a check-point close to the national intelligence agency in Kabul, which was attacked on December 25. (Photo: Reuters)</strong></span></div>
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In the next few months from now, one can expect the Taliban to drag the negotiations while pretending to be earnest about the process, and then come back in the spring of 2019 with renewed vigour.</div>
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The Taliban and their mentors, Pakistan, knew they just had to wait it out. This became very clear when President Obama announced in 2009 that the US would leave Afghanistan in 2011. In the immediate future, the Afghan government will possibly yield more ground to the Taliban. </div>
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In recent months, very little has been heard about the Haqqani Network. The Pakistanis are possibly keeping it under control for a final assault.</div>
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<span style="font-family: "Open Sans";">The Taliban have not evolved into a political movement and have remained a jihadi force. It is highly unlikely that the Taliban will accept the present Afghan constitution, and would insist on governance under Islamic law. A Taliban victory after a deal with the US will only bail out the US — without bringing peace to the country. Afghanistan could easily break out into ethnic, sectarian, regional and tribal tensions.</span></div>
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There is also the question of the increasing profile of the Islamic State remnants now in Afghanistan, with their alliances with others. As Andrew Bacevich <span style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><a href="https://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-bacevich-afghanistan-20181219-story.html" rel="nofollow" style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0883ed; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;" target="_blank">put it very bluntly</a></span>, “The United States’ war in Afghanistan began with an illusion that it was incumbent upon the US to liberate and transform that country. The war in Afghanistan will end, as the Vietnam War ended — in shame and abandonment.” (<em style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;">The war in Afghanistan isn't a 'stalemate.' The US has lost."</em>)</div>
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There are reports of the Islamic State in alliance with the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan gaining some presence in northern Afghanistan, close to countries like Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, which have had traditionally close ties with Russia. They also have a presence in Nangarhar and Paktika provinces bordering Pakistan. It is possible they will later drift to other pastures east or north.</div>
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With the recent <a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/isis-module-busted-in-delhi-up-was-ready-for-multiple-bombings-nia/story-OLFNIVnuZzfS9P1plpsyGO.html" rel="nofollow" style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; color: #0883ed; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;" target="_blank"><span style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;">discovery of ISIS cells</span> </a>in Delhi and UP, a likelihood of such cells having been established or functioning under the banner of ISIS elsewhere as well would be a matter of great worry for the Indian security apparatus. It is unlikely the Arabs operate them, but merely some locals using the franchise’s name, or induced to do so.</div>
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<amp-img alt="bomb-inside_122718091123.jpg" class="i-amphtml-element i-amphtml-layout-responsive i-amphtml-layout-size-defined i-amphtml-layout" height="425" layout="responsive" src="https://smedia2.intoday.in/dailyo/story/embed/201812/bomb-inside_122718091123.jpg" style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; display: block; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; overflow: hidden !important; padding: 0px; position: relative;" width="650"><i-amphtml-sizer style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; display: block !important; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 474.688px 0px 0px;"></i-amphtml-sizer><img alt="bomb-inside_122718091123.jpg" class="i-amphtml-fill-content i-amphtml-replaced-content" decoding="async" src="https://smedia2.intoday.in/dailyo/story/embed/201812/bomb-inside_122718091123.jpg" style="border: none !important; bottom: 0px; box-sizing: border-box; display: block; height: 0px; left: 0px; margin: auto; max-height: 100%; max-width: 100%; min-height: 100%; min-width: 100%; outline: 0px; padding: 0px !important; position: absolute; right: 0px; top: 0px; width: 0px;" /></amp-img><span style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;"><strong style="border: none; box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px;">The recent discovery of ISIS cells in Delhi and UP is a matter of concern for the Indian security apparatus. (Photo: Twitter)</strong></span></div>
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Pakistan may feel the loss of American largesse in case peace negotiations are successful. Pakistan has meanwhile worked out deals with the UAE, Saudi Arabia and China to keep some funds flowing in to lift its battered economy.</div>
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There is another possible gain. Russia and China will also show greater interest in affairs in Afghanistan, which would be in line with Pakistan’s interests in Afghanistan, so long as the US is kept out.</div>
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There is another aspect that needs to be kept in mind as the Great Game may continue in different forms. US President Trump recently tweeted that the Saudi government had agreed to help finance the rebuilding of Syria. This could be a dual-purpose exercise, which provides business opportunities to American industry to build what they themselves, with Saudi Arabia, first helped destroy. The hope is that this will keep the Russians and China away — or, at least, prevent them from being in control. This plan could be replicated in Afghanistan for the same reasons. </div>
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Once the US leaves Afghanistan, it will rapidly lose interest in Pakistan — and even the region. There would be a loss of rent to Pakistan — but it will also see this as an opportunity to strengthen its control in Afghanistan.</div>
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For this, it will want to pretend to keep peace with India — it will make all the polite noises about living in peace to keep its eastern border quiet. It can be expected to keep the Khalistan and Kashmir issues on the back-burner until Afghanistan is ‘sorted out’, with its India-specific jihadi outfits intact.</div>
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Pakistan will see a Taliban victory in Afghanistan as a vindication of is policies, and both the Taliban and Pakistan will depict this as a victory of the faith over another superpower. This will be enough encouragement to unleash its assiduously nurtured India-specific Ghazwa-e-Hind battalions against India.</div>
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We need not be beguiled into believing otherwise.</div>
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<b>Source : DailyO, </b></div>
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Vikram Soodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17532738573788654660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7334994418553245876.post-1560174847672021952018-11-06T14:27:00.000+05:302018-11-06T14:27:04.864+05:30Jamal Khashoggi was brutally murdered. But the US doesn't care because its interests lie elsewhere<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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He had joined the <span style="color: #3366ff;"><a href="https://www.spectator.co.uk/2018/10/death-of-a-dissident-saudi-arabia-and-the-rise-of-the-mobster-state/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #3366ff; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Muslim Brotherhood</a></span> in the 1970s, about the same time as had Osama bin Laden, when the Brotherhood was still an underground movement in Saudi Arabia. He later confided to a friend that they were hoping to establish an Islamic state all over the globe. He was close enough to Osama to know that he always carried a bag of salt with him and he would suck at the salt whenever he felt dizzy to prevent his blood pressure from sinking.</div>
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The same person, working as a journalist, had <span style="color: #3366ff;"><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/Missing-journalist-Jamal-Khashoggi-had-a-complicated-past-involving-interviews-with-Osama-bin-Laden-and-close-ties-to-the-Saudi-royal-family/articleshow/66229961.cms" rel="nofollow" style="color: #3366ff; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">covered Osama's activities</a></span> in Afghanistan earlier, had gone to Khartoum in 1994 to persuade Osama to make a public statement renouncing violence. While Osama was willing to condemn violence inside the Kingdom, he refused to say this on record.</div>
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<img alt="osama-story_102418123452.jpg" src="https://smedia2.intoday.in/dailyo/story/embed/201810/osama-story_102418123452.jpg" style="max-width: 600px;" title="osama-story_102418123452.jpg" /><span style="color: black; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px;"><strong>Jamal Khashoggi's close friend: Jamal had joined the Muslim Brotherhood in the 1970s, as had Osama bin Laden. (Photo: Mazhar Ali Khan/AP)</strong></span></div>
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He was a source of John Brennan, CIA representative in Saudi Arabia, who later became Barrack Obama's CIA Director. He was a US Green Card-holder. It is also said of him that he was a nephew of Adnan Khashoggi, the billionaire arms dealer and a champion wheeler-dealer wherever money was to be made. Adnan was a guarantor in the notorious Iran-Contra scam during the Reagan era.</div>
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Yes, Jamal Khashoggi was no ordinary person.</div>
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Khashoggi fled the Kingdom in September 2017 fearing reprisals after his differences with Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) grew. He soon began working as a correspondent with <em>Washington Post</em>.</div>
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<img alt="kashoggi-story_102418123649.jpg" src="https://smedia2.intoday.in/dailyo/story/embed/201810/kashoggi-story_102418123649.jpg" style="max-width: 600px;" title="kashoggi-story_102418123649.jpg" /><span style="color: black; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px;"><strong>Khashoggi fled the Saudi Kingdom in September 2017, fearing reprisals after his differences with Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) grew. (Photo: Hasan Jamali / AP)</strong></span></div>
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Later, he told <span style="color: #3366ff;"><a href="https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/04/09/a-saudi-princes-quest-to-remake-the-middle-east" rel="nofollow" style="color: #3366ff; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">The New Yorker</a></span> columnist, Dexter Filkins, that Mohammed bin Salman was not really arresting hardline clerics, but the reformers because they were popular and this worried MBS. This was part of a wide sweep against all potential enemies of MBS.</div>
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Khashoggi's disappearance from the Saudi Consulate that fateful October 2 morning is surely the result of a botched-up intelligence operation. The Saudis were trying to organise an 'extra-ordinary rendition' — but without the clinical finesse of the Americans and without local support. The Turks say the Saudis killed Khashoggi.</div>
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Meanwhile, the Trump administration had a three-point agenda for West Asia, and Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, with no political and diplomatic experience of the region was leading the charge. The agenda was to totally defeat the Islamic Caliphate of ISIS, force the Gulf States to stop funding radical Islam and perhaps, the more important, push back Iran into nothingness. What followed for both the US and the Saudis were pursuits of policies removed from reality — something at which both have excelled in other areas.</div>
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<img alt="kushner-mbs-story_102418123525.jpg" src="https://smedia2.intoday.in/dailyo/story/embed/201810/kushner-mbs-story_102418123525.jpg" style="max-width: 600px;" title="kushner-mbs-story_102418123525.jpg" /><span style="color: black; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px;"><strong>The Trump administration had a three-point agenda for West Asia, and Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, was leading the charge. (Photo: Jonathan Ernst/Reuters)</strong></span></div>
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As MBS consolidated power, which included his high-profile purge of the Saudi Royals and wealthy Saudis allegedly for corruption, he also tripled the funds allocated for lobbying in the US in 2017 to US $27 million.</div>
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Money reportedly poured into organisations like the Middle East Institute, the Centre for Strategic and International Studies and the Brookings Institute. Well-known lobbying firms like the McKeon Group and BGR Group with connections to the House Armed Services Forces, founded by some prominent Republicans and the Glover Park Group as well as by Democrat political strategists, were favored. The UAE also began to pitch in with its own lobbying effort.</div>
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The US Congress had voted out a resolution aimed at extracting the US from 'the worst humanitarian crisis in the world' — the endless killings in Yemen, where the Shia Houthis refused to stop fighting Saudi-backed forces since 2015.</div>
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The massive lobbying had apparently worked — and MBS's visit to the US in March 2018 was a success.</div>
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Quite apparently, the US was not going to let down its great friend in the region. Besides, it was also a question of money — and billions of it. The US has promised US $139 billion worth of military contracts to the Saudis while the Saudis promised to buy US $110 billion worth of military hardware that would benefit companies like Raytheon, Lockheed Martin and Boeing. The EU too has substantial investment commitments in Saudi Arabia, with France being one of the leading European investors.</div>
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Besides, MBS was seen as the agent of change in his country with his Vision 2030. Oil and money have been strategic and lucrative reasons to diligently woo the Saudi royals, ever since <span style="color: #3366ff;"><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2015/01/27/the-first-time-a-u-s-president-met-a-saudi-king/?utm_term=.994783ba5410" rel="nofollow" style="color: #3366ff; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">President Roosevelt met King Abdul-Aziz al Saud</a></span> aboard the USS Quincy in 1945. The King promised access to oil and the President promised US security.</div>
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Modern-day strategic goals include regime change in Iran as an increasingly urgent motive in wooing Saudi Arabia — even though this has not succeeded since 1979.</div>
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<img alt="abdul-aziz-reagan-st_102418123548.jpg" src="https://smedia2.intoday.in/dailyo/story/embed/201810/abdul-aziz-reagan-st_102418123548.jpg" style="max-width: 600px;" title="abdul-aziz-reagan-st_102418123548.jpg" /><span style="color: black; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px;"><strong>President Roosevelt listens as Saudi King Abdul Aziz speaks with him aboard USS Quincy on Feb 20, 1945. (Photo: AP Photo/File)</strong></span></div>
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Initially, President Trump tried to defend the Saudis — but this became untenable.</div>
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Brennan has been particularly scathing in his criticism of the US President for his attempts to describe Khashoggi's disappearance as an act by rogue killers. He described the killing as an atrocity, adding that Crown Prince Muhammed bin Sultan's close ties with the White House "must not stand in the way of a full and forceful US response."</div>
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The former British SIS chief Sir John Sawyers has been quoted as having said that the theory that rogue Saudi military officers were responsible for this was not acceptable and this would further undermine respect for America "when it panders to such blatant fiction". 'Rogue agents' do not really exist; they are only described so when a deniable covert operation goes wrong — but no-one believes such fiction, like 'non-state actors' to describe state-supported terrorists.</div>
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US intelligence agencies have long been suspicious of the close Kushner-MBS relationship and about actions in West Asia. The Israelis would be concerned that this episode could diminish the Saudi image in Washington DC. The murder of one dissident journalist is unlikely to upset larger interests because of perceived larger strategic interests, Iran, for instance, at stake. Sanctions against MBS for this one act are probably unthinkable when the entire Saudi campaign against Yemen has Congressional approval.</div>
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US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo was sent to meet MBS while the Director of the CIA flew in to Turkey to talk to an angry President Erdogan because ultimately, the issue is Iran in West Asia — and not Jamal Khashoggi.</div>
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<strong><span style="color: #3366ff;"><a href="https://www.dailyo.in/politics/jamal-khashoggi-saudi-arabia-turkey-istanbul-erdogan-ankara-riyadh-washington-post/story/1/27106.html" style="color: #3366ff; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Also read: The mysterious ‘killing’ of top Saudi journalist and what it means for the Middle-East</a></span></strong></div>
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<b>Source : 24th october 2018 DailyO</b></div>
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Vikram Soodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17532738573788654660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7334994418553245876.post-38473823048571005182018-11-06T14:25:00.003+05:302018-11-06T14:25:55.752+05:30China's great wall: The mysterious case of the missing Interpol Chief<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Meng Hongwei, the Chinese head of Interpol and a vice minister in the Chinese Minister of Public Security, had mysteriously <a href="https://qz.com/1416419/china-is-investigating-missing-interpol-head-meng-hongwei/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #565656; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #3366ff;">disappeared</span> </a>in the last week of September while on a visit to his country. The mystery surrounding this disappearance was solved on October 7. The Chinese Communist Party announced that the Interpol President was <span style="color: #3366ff;"><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/08/china-accuses-detained-interpol-chief-meng-hongwei-of-bribery" rel="nofollow" style="color: #3366ff; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">under investigation</a></span> for having violated the law and was under the supervision of an anti-corruption unit of the party. Interpol headquarters in Lyon, France, also received Meng’s letter of <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/07/world/asia/china-interpol-men-hongwei.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #565656; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #3366ff;">resignation</span> </a>the same day.</div>
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<img alt="meng_101018093346.jpg" src="https://smedia2.intoday.in/dailyo/story/embed/201810/meng_101018093346.jpg" style="max-width: 600px;" title="meng_101018093346.jpg" /><span style="color: black; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px;"><strong>The mystery of the missing Meng. (Photo: Reuters)</strong></span></div>
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The arrest may seem startling for many — but not in China. Meng has many more powerful predecessors who have been imprisoned by the Chinese in recent years. Zhou Yongkang, the once powerful Security Chief of China and member of the nine-member Politburo Standing Committee, was the most senior leader of the party in 65 years to be <span style="color: #3366ff;"><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/12/world/asia/zhou-yongkang-former-security-chief-in-china-gets-life-sentence-for-corruption.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #3366ff; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">sentenced for life</a></span> in June 2015. This downfall was huge for the once second-most powerful man in the country after President Xi Jinping. Chinese TV televised his confession to charges of abuse of power, bribery and revealing state secrets, along with his sentencing.</div>
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Xi was sending a message to all that he was serious about his campaign to eradicate corruption.</div>
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Another member of the 25-member Politburo and vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission, General Guo Boxiong, <span style="color: #3366ff;"><a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jul/26/top-chinese-general-guo-boxiong-jailed-life-taking-bribes" rel="nofollow" style="color: #3366ff; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">went to prison</a></span> in 2016 on charges of corruption. The general accepted his punishment and announced, wisely, that he would not be appealing these orders. </div>
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<img alt="xi_101018093513.jpg" src="https://smedia2.intoday.in/dailyo/story/embed/201810/xi_101018093513.jpg" style="max-width: 600px;" title="xi_101018093513.jpg" /><span style="color: black; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px;"><strong>He may be smiling. But he's serious. (Photo: Reuters)</strong></span></div>
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Chinese authorities had claimed that in 2015, their anti-corruption campaign had punished about 300,000 officials, of which 200,000 got away lightly but about 80,000 had received harsher sentences. There was also a campaign on television where convicted corrupt officials made their confessions, much to the satisfaction of the viewers, according to government claims.</div>
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The present phase of the campaign seems to be the result of heightened activities of the newly created anti-corruption agency called the <span style="color: #3366ff;"><a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-03/23/c_137060883.htm" rel="nofollow" style="color: #3366ff; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">National Supervision Commission </a></span>(NSC) that was established during the annual National People’s Congress in March this year.</div>
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<img alt="ncp_101018094107.jpg" src="https://smedia2.intoday.in/dailyo/story/embed/201810/ncp_101018094107.jpg" style="max-width: 600px;" title="ncp_101018094107.jpg" /><span style="color: black; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px;"><strong>Saying it together in one voice. (Photo: Reuters)</strong></span></div>
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The NSC is a far better resourced agency and unified — it enhances President Xi’s powers in a presidency that has no term limits any more. It is not meant to be a check on his powers. Just before the announcement of the arrest of Meng, the Chinese also announced that China’s most famous actress, Fan Bingbing, and others who had been evading taxes, would be heavily punished.</div>
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<img alt="fan_101018094205.jpg" src="https://smedia2.intoday.in/dailyo/story/embed/201810/fan_101018094205.jpg" style="max-width: 600px;" title="fan_101018094205.jpg" /><span style="color: black; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px;"><strong>China's most famous actor, Fan Bingbing suddenly went missing for weeks, until her tax case was solved. (Photo: Reuters)</strong></span></div>
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Fan promptly <span style="color: #3366ff;"><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/china-orders-actress-fan-bingbing-to-pay-massive-tax-fine/2018/10/02/bbe8645a-c6be-11e8-9c0f-2ffaf6d422aa_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.372cc0644260" rel="nofollow" style="color: #3366ff; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">announced </a></span>that she would pay the taxes and the back taxes as well to avoid criminal charges since this was her first offence.</div>
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Meanwhile, Zach Dorfman in his long <a href="https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/03/29/the-disappeared-china-renditions-kidnapping/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #565656; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #3366ff;">report</span> </a>— "The Disappeared" — in the <em>Foreign Policy</em> issue of March 29, 2018 had given details of attempts — by the Chinese the world over — to kidnap dissidents and bring them home for “correction”.</div>
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Dorfman also said that these attempts by the Chinese in other countries could be reaching the US in the future. For the Chinese, acquisition of another nationality was not of any relevance — a Chinese was always a Chinese. They possibly launched their own version of the US extraordinary renditions programme during George Bush Jr's Iraq War in 2005. Western intelligence agencies have been concerned that a paranoid Beijing may be targeting Chinese-origin dissidents legally residing in Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and the UK. Kidnappings have also occurred in Hong Kong, Vietnam and Myanmar.</div>
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The Chinese are targeting ex-CCP officials, powerful businessmen, dissidents and activists and those suspected of corruption. Legality of proof in a totalitarian system is undoubtedly not a major issue. Possibly the Interpol chief Meng was lured or coerced into visiting China under this scheme. American intelligence have noticed that some Chinese living in the US have also started disappearing in the last five years.</div>
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The Chinese have been exhibiting their zeal for correctional activities elsewhere in the country.</div>
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About a million Muslims, mostly Uighurs from Xinjiang province have been herded into vast <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-45147972" rel="nofollow" style="color: #565656; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank"><span style="color: #3366ff;">camps</span> </a>that can hold as many as 6000 persons behind heavily secured barbed wire fences and surveillance systems guarded by armed police, without any legal proceedings.<strong> </strong>The idea is political indoctrination to reassert party ideology and weaken religious, ethnic or any spiritual leanings among the restive Uighurs.</div>
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<img alt="uighur_101018094601.jpg" src="https://smedia2.intoday.in/dailyo/story/embed/201810/uighur_101018094601.jpg" style="max-width: 600px;" title="uighur_101018094601.jpg" /><span style="color: black; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px;"><strong>China's Muslim Uighurs have often gone missing, only to be found in prisons meant to reassert 'Chinese' identity. (Photo: Reuters)</strong></span></div>
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Totalitarian regimes find it easier to be xenophobic and paranoid. They have no compunction in stone-walling or simply ignoring any enquiries that others may want to institute. Silence about Uighur Muslims from China’s friends Pakistan and Saudi Arabia will help.</div>
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Meanwhile, expect no fallout from the arrest of Meng Hongwei.</div>
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The world has moved on.</div>
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[Vikram Sood, the former chief of R&AW, is an adviser to the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) and has authored the book <em>The Unending Game — A Former R&AW Chief’s Insights into Espionage </em>(Penguin).]</div>
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<strong><span style="color: #3366ff;"><a href="https://www.dailyo.in/politics/us-china-trade-war-economies-bilateral-ties-donald-trump-xi-jinping-deficit/story/1/25489.html" style="color: #3366ff; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Also read: Why US-China trade war won’t work</a></span></strong></div>
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<iframe allowfullscreen="true" frameborder="0" height="388" scrolling="no" src="https://www.facebook.com/plugins/video.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FDailyO.in%2Fvideos%2F2196690670562388%2F&show_text=0&width=690" style="border-style: none; border-width: initial; overflow: hidden; width: 630px;" width="690"></iframe></div>
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<b>Source : 11th october 2018 , DailyO</b></div>
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Vikram Soodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17532738573788654660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7334994418553245876.post-13112691681030191742018-11-06T14:24:00.001+05:302018-11-06T14:24:14.126+05:30The Triangle: The Terrorist, the Criminal and the Spy<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Pakistan has deployed a huge phalanx of terrorist organisations against India — one of the deadliest among which is LeT. </div>
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Created in 1987 with seed money from Osama bin Laden, LeT quickly became a favourite of the ISI. Its creed — Ghazwa-e-Hind (Islam’s victory in the final battle against India) — was particularly enchanting to the Deep State of Pakistan. LeT entered the Kashmir terror scene in the 1990s when the ISI was busy diversifying jihad on the Afghan model. Its zealous cadres won acclaim. It continued to have links in Afghanistan, received generous donations from the Middle East — especially Saudi Arabia — and the support of Pakistan’s Army and the ISI. Rich Pakistani businessmen, eager to feather their own nests with the Deep State, donated generously, contributing to LeT’s rise as an Islamic terrorist force in Asia, with links to Al-Qaeda and a reach into Central Asia... </div>
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<img alt="Hafiz Saeed's political party is in the fray in the Pakistan elections held on July 25. " src="https://smedia2.intoday.in/dailyo/story/embed/201807/saeed-inside_072518044410.jpg" style="max-width: 600px;" title="saeed-inside_072518044410.jpg" /><span style="color: black; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px;"><strong>Democracy? Hafiz Saeed's political party even contested the Pakistan elections held on July 25. (Photo: Reuters/File)</strong></span></div>
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It … continues to train its cadres in camps in Muridke, its headquarters near Lahore. LeT remains an invaluable asset to the ISI and the Pakistani establishment as it enables them to keep the Kashmir option open even while supporting the US campaign in Afghanistan.</div>
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...</div>
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A secret US report estimated some years ago that the annual military operations budget of LeT was about $5.2 million. One operating season in a sector of Jammu and Kashmir for a single terror group cost about 250 million. Add to this the number of terror groups that Pakistan has thrown at India — one can deduce that this figure would be upward of 1000 million. </div>
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These figures had spawned overnight millionaires in Pakistan and some in Jammu and Kashmir too.</div>
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<img alt="The cost and price of terror: One operating season in a sector of Jammu and Kashmir for a single terror group cost about 250 million. (Photo: PTI/File)" src="https://smedia2.intoday.in/dailyo/story/embed/201807/kashmir-inside_072518044547.jpg" style="max-width: 600px;" title="kashmir-inside_072518044547.jpg" /><span style="color: black; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px;"><strong>The price of terror: One operating season in a sector of Jammu and Kashmir for a single terror group cost about 250 million. (Photo: PTI/File)</strong></span></div>
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… </div>
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LeT has received funds from state sponsorship, charities, smuggling and its own businesses ... LeT has now had a close association with Dawood Ibrahim, with activities like kidnapping, narcotics smuggling, fake currency and extortion money routed through hawala channels.</div>
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<img alt="LeT has now had a close association with Dawood Ibrahim, wanted for his role in the 1993 Mumbai blasts. " src="https://smedia2.intoday.in/dailyo/story/embed/201807/ibrahim-inside_072518044719.jpg" style="max-width: 600px;" title="ibrahim-inside_072518044719.jpg" /><span style="color: black; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px;"><strong>Best Friends Forever: LeT has a close association with Pakistan-based mafioso Dawood Ibrahim, wanted for his role in the 1993 Mumbai blasts.</strong></span></div>
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Pakistan maintains its farcical denial or studied ambiguity about state sponsorship despite all evidence leading to the doors of the military and the ISI. It provides shelter, support and sustenance to these crown jewels of its foreign policy. </div>
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LeT controls several legitimate businesses, including a very lucrative business of the sale of animal hides after Eid al-Azha ... Its illegal activities include false trade invoices, counterfeiting, extortion and narcotics trade. Publications, particularly jihadi ones, are sold with an additional mark-up, while Kashmiri carpets exported to the Gulf have their prices marked down, with the difference sent through hawala for use in the jihad. Narcotics smuggling is particularly lucrative, and with the harvest running as high as $2.5 billion some years ago, some of it has surely added to the ISI’s coffers to bolster its terror campaign against India. </div>
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This is as good a reason to continue the jihad as any other.</div>
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LeT has been investing in land acquisitions and has opened new offices, more than 1,500 in Pakistan…</div>
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From being dependent on state sponsorship and Saudi money, LeT has become increasingly self-reliant.</div>
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The political wing of LeT, the Markaz Dawa Irshad, renamed Jamaat-ud-Dawa, renamed Idara Khidmat-e-Khalq and reborn yet again in 1996 as the Falah-e-Insaniyat Foundation (FIF), the charity wing of JuD. This NGO runs 200 mainstream dawa schools, eleven madrassas, two science colleges, a fleet of 283 ambulances in 242 cities, mobile clinics and blood banks. FIF has 245 professors, more than 500 doctors and 1942 paramedical staff. It runs seven hospitals in six cities and thirty-five across-the-board social services in 260 cities … Its recruits are well-educated, qualified urban professionals. </div>
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<img alt="Caption caption " src="https://smedia2.intoday.in/dailyo/story/embed/201807/hospital-inside_072518044853.jpg" style="max-width: 600px;" title="hospital-inside_072518044853.jpg" /><span style="color: black; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px;"><strong>The Government Al-Aziz Hospital, previously known as Al-Aziz Hospital, in Muridke, was run by the JuD. (Photo: Reuters)</strong></span></div>
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Some years ago, the Punjab government in Pakistan granted about $9.3 million to JuD, which was banned following a UN decision to list it as a terrorist organisation. When questioned by Sherry Rehman, a Pakistan Peoples Party member of Parliament, the government response was that since the ban, its functioning had been taken over by the government, making it a social welfare organisation.</div>
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<img alt="Sherry Rehman, a member of Parliament, questioned the government over aid given to the JuD. (Photo: Screengrab)" src="https://smedia2.intoday.in/dailyo/story/embed/201807/rehman-inside_072518050944.jpg" style="max-width: 600px;" title="rehman-inside_072518050944.jpg" /><span style="color: black; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px;"><strong>Sherry Rehman, a member of Parliament, questioned the government over aid given to the JuD. (Photo: Screengrab)</strong></span></div>
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LeT has a global agenda and involvement. It began with activities in Jammu and Kashmir that spread to the rest of India from the 1990s and continue till today. It was associated with the Haqqani Network terror attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul that killed fifty-eight persons in July 2008. In November that year, an attack that lasted three days in Mumbai killed 166 persons. </div>
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After the US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, the organisation quickly became an eager supporter of Al-Qaeda, providing its operatives shelter, escape routes and even training. They allowed their own cadres to freelance with Al-Qaeda; this allowed LeT and, more importantly, the Pakistanis, credible deniability with the Americans. Abu Zubeida, one of Al-Qaeda’s senior representatives, was hiding in an LeT safe house at the time of his arrest. </div>
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The JuD–LeT combine is stronger than Al-Qaeda and Islamic State.</div>
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It was conceived as an organisation that can run a modern state, unlike Al-Qaeda … Al-Qaeda and Islamic State may talk of a global agenda and plan to replace the existing systems with an Islamic system, but neither of them can hold territory, nor do they have the expertise and experienced workers to do so. </div>
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<img alt="Ajmal Kasab, the LeT operative captured after the Mumbai attacks that killed 166 people. " src="https://smedia2.intoday.in/dailyo/story/embed/201807/kasab-inside_072518045222.jpg" style="max-width: 600px;" title="kasab-inside_072518045222.jpg" /><span style="color: black; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px;"><strong>LeT Export: Ajmal Kasab, the LeT operative captured after the Mumbai attacks that killed 166 people. (Photo: AP)</strong></span></div>
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JuD, on the other hand, has professional staff trained in statecraft. It has penetrated virtually all government departments, including the armed forces... </div>
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Much of this ability to regroup is attributable to the coddling of these sectarian, militant and terrorist groups…now prevalent in Pakistan. The army does it for what it sees as strategic options while politicians do it for political survival. The common person sees FIF as a social welfare organisation, and any stern action against it will not only be unpopular among the people – but the jihadis may well turn against the state and accuse it of betraying the cause of jihad and therefore Islam. </div>
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The result has been that the state has ceded ground to these groups.</div>
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It has become a state within a state — and it is not very far from the Radcliffe Line that separates India and Pakistan.</div>
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<b>Source : 25th July 2018 , DailyO</b></div>
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Vikram Soodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17532738573788654660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7334994418553245876.post-4328667081847781782018-11-06T14:22:00.004+05:302018-11-06T14:22:47.897+05:30The US-India 2+2 Dialogue: When two plus two may not make four<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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The much awaited and talked about US-India 2+2 strategic dialogue will now be held on<span style="color: #3366ff;"> <a href="https://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ians/india-us-to-hold-first-2-2-strategic-dialogue-on-sep-6-in-delhi-118072000427_1.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #3366ff; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">September 6</a></span>, when US Secretaries of State and Defence meet their Indian counterparts Sushma Swaraj and Nirmala Sitharaman.<strong> </strong>This will be the first such dialogue between the two countries after two postponements — and it would be prudent not to go overboard with one’s expectations.</div>
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<img alt="sushma-mike_090518082149.jpg" src="https://smedia2.intoday.in/dailyo/story/embed/201809/sushma-mike_090518082149.jpg" style="max-width: 600px;" title="sushma-mike_090518082149.jpg" /></div>
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<span style="color: black; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px;"><strong>India's External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj (L). US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (R). (Photo: Reuters)</strong></span></div>
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This meeting is at a time when there is considerable churn in the geo-politics of the region.</div>
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As the US seeks an honourable and early exit from Afghanistan, intelligence representatives from four countries with whom US relations are at low-ebb for various reasons — Russia, Iran, China and Pakistan — <span style="color: #3366ff;"><a href="https://tribune.com.pk/story/1756290/1-pakistan-regional-spymasters-resolve-counter-islamic-state-afghanistan/" rel="nofollow" style="color: #3366ff; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">met</a></span> in Pakistan in the first week of July. The agenda included possible policies in Afghanistan post-US withdrawal.</div>
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All the four countries have had independent links with the Taliban as they prepare for this American withdrawal. The Russians are giving the Americans additional moments of anxiety with their largest ever tri-wing three-nation <span style="color: #3366ff;"><a href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/india-and-russia-to-hold-tri-service-military-exercise-indra/articleshow/64647978.cms" rel="nofollow" style="color: #3366ff; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">military exercise</a></span> since the collapse of the USSR with China and Mongolia. The signalling to American strategists, through Vostok 2018 scheduled in mid-September is obvious. It is an indication of a new level in the Russia-China geo-political understanding.</div>
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The geo-political message to the Americans is very clear — as it should be to India.</div>
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<img alt="chinese-workers_090518083128.jpg" src="https://smedia2.intoday.in/dailyo/story/embed/201809/chinese-workers_090518083128.jpg" style="max-width: 600px;" title="chinese-workers_090518083128.jpg" /><span style="color: black; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px;"><strong>The Chinese in Kabul. (Photo: Reuters)</strong></span></div>
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Americans have another related worry in the Indo-Pacific. Until the turn of the century, US military presence compared to the Chinese was overwhelmingly in America’s favour. This equation began to change in the last two decades and by 2017, the number of Chinese combat aircraft, naval vessels and missiles had begun to exceed that of the Americans in the western Pacific. American strategists now predict that by 2025, while the American presence may remain unchanged, Chinese military deployments will be such that its military capabilities will extend to the second island chain — this only confirms the American fear that the Chinese seek to replace the US as the primary power in Asia, undermine the US-led alliance systems and US credibility.</div>
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<span style="color: #3366ff;"><a href="https://www.firstpost.com/world/us-senate-passes-716-billion-bill-seeking-enhanced-ties-with-major-defence-partner-india-4547481.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #3366ff; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">The National Defence Authorisation Act 2019 </a></span>would require America's Executive branch to prepare “a whole of government” strategy while dealing with China.<strong> </strong>The intention is to safeguard US interests against Chinese industrial acquisitions, political influence and regional and global military capabilities, and that these should be with congressional committees by March 1, 2019 — this is what would be uppermost in the visitors’ minds when they meet their Indian hosts.</div>
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Indians remains concerned about growing Chinese presence in the Indian Ocean littoral as China continues with its debt-trap diplomacy. The news that the Chinese were developing the world’s new <span style="color: #3366ff;"><a href="https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2161338/china-developing-electromagnetic-rocket-greater-fire" rel="nofollow" style="color: #3366ff; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">electromagnetic surface to surface rocket</a></span>, that give the PLA military advantage in high altitude regions along the Himalayas and Tibet, would not be lost on Indian military planners. The Chinese scientists assert that the <span style="color: #3366ff;"><a href="http://www.military-today.com/artillery/phl03.htm" rel="nofollow" style="color: #3366ff; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">PHL-03 multiple launch rocket system</a></span> will have a range of 650km. This disclosure comes just ahead of the India-US bilateral dialogue.</div>
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Meanwhile, China is serious about opening alternative sea routes to Europe. Chinese scientists have established an <span style="color: #3366ff;"><a href="http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201808/23/WS5b7e7865a310add14f3876fb.html" rel="nofollow" style="color: #3366ff; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">unmanned ice station</a></span> in the Arctic Ocean as an observation post for ocean fluxes, sea ice and the atmosphere. This is ahead of the plans to open a sea route from Shanghai to Rotterdam taking advantage of climate changes. This would reduce the present 20800-kilometer route via the Suez by 8000km and two weeks.</div>
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<img alt="shanghai_090518083328.jpg" src="https://smedia2.intoday.in/dailyo/story/embed/201809/shanghai_090518083328.jpg" style="max-width: 600px;" title="shanghai_090518083328.jpg" /><span style="color: black; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px;"><strong>Getting Nearer: Shanghai to Rotterdam will soon be two weeks closer to each other. (Photo: Hanjin Shipping)</strong></span></div>
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The Danish shipping company AP Moller-Maersk Group will be sending its first container ship by end-August. North America, Europe and East Asia would eventually have new connectivity and Russia will be a key littoral. Big powers concerned with world domination would be factoring this into their calculations.</div>
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Our Americans visitors will surely be talking about terrorism and various military, trade and economic aspects of Indo-US relations, but they will be laying stress on the future Indian role in the Indo-Pacific region. They will want India to provide support and stability to the free and open order in the Indo-Pacific. The hope is that this would force China to divert its forces more thinly from the western sphere to the eastern regions.</div>
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<img alt="doklam_090518083554.jpg" src="https://smedia2.intoday.in/dailyo/story/embed/201809/doklam_090518083554.jpg" style="max-width: 600px;" title="doklam_090518083554.jpg" /><span style="color: black; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px;"><strong>The Line Between Us: An Indian soldier stands against his Chinese counterpart. (Photo: Indiatoday.in)</strong></span></div>
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Even assuming that Chinese tolerance of enhanced Indo-US military cooperation may have become higher, it is doubtful if this can be taken as a certainty. The <span style="color: #3366ff;"><a href="https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/what-is-the-doklam-issue-all-about/article22536937.ece" rel="nofollow" style="color: #3366ff; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">Doklam</a></span> military standoff had indicated that there were still quite a few problematic issues that could be escalated by China, should it want to test India again.<strong> </strong>Indian strategists would also be aware that while the US may want to improve Indian military capabilities discreetly, it is not going to get directly involved in any operations with India.</div>
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The US must also understand that Indian security interests are to its east and west and that the Indian Ocean is now going to be the new security frontier with an increasing Chinese presence. By simply concentrating on the South China Sea, the US is losing valuable space to China elsewhere.</div>
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<img alt="malabar-exercise_090518083721.jpg" src="https://smedia2.intoday.in/dailyo/story/embed/201809/malabar-exercise_090518083721.jpg" style="max-width: 600px;" title="malabar-exercise_090518083721.jpg" /><span style="color: black; display: block; font-family: arial; font-size: 12px;"><strong>The US-India-Japan Malabar Exercise was held earlier this year. (Photo: Reuters)</strong></span></div>
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Other than that, the implications of CAATSA on India’s relations with Iran and Russia will presumably be discussed. The understandable Indian concern would be how far would CAATSA affect India-US defence and security cooperation and even though waivers might be available; this does add an uncertainty to the relationship.</div>
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The US has been keen that India should sign the “<span style="color: #3366ff;"><a href="https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/india-close-to-signing-comcasa-with-us/article23366048.ece" rel="nofollow" style="color: #3366ff; text-decoration-line: none;" target="_blank">three foundational</a></span>” agreements to enable enhanced defence cooperation; this is most certainly going to be an issue that will be discussed.<strong> </strong>The three accords — Logistics Support Agreement (LSA), Communications Interoperability and Security Memorandum of Agreement (CISMOA) and Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) — are fundamental to any US military cooperation but have clauses that make Indians apprehensive that their security interests would be at risk.</div>
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Although the first two have been modified to suit Indian reservations, the US is likely to insist on the original agreements.</div>
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This will have to be resolved to mutual satisfaction.</div>
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Today, resident nations from the Arctic to the Indian Ocean and from the Suez to the Sea of Japan jostle for power and control in Asia. There is one non-resident player. Can it triumph over the other players? Surely, this thought will feature strongly in the minds of all four leaders when they meet shortly.</div>
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<b>Source : 6th September 2018 , DailyO</b></div>
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Vikram Soodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17532738573788654660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7334994418553245876.post-81846664297692227482018-09-28T11:26:00.003+05:302018-09-28T11:26:12.806+05:30Police reform must target weakest link<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Reimagining internal security may seem the easier part. Putting into place security systems based on carefully assessed emerging threats to fit into the reimagined internal security is the difficult step. The source, nature and range of threats will change in a rapidly technocentric world. Earlier practices of building new superstructures carved out of existing organisations will no longer be adequate or appropriate.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Yet, for India, old threats will continue, even as new ones including internet-centric risks evolve. Future security threats, internal or external, will use different tactics and weapons. One frequently hears of the expression “weaponisation of the social media”, where platforms originally meant for leisure and exchange among friends are now increasingly being used for sharing or spreading distress and mobilising support for socio-political uprisings. Cyberactivism, in an era of instant encrypted communication that is beyond the reach of advanced security systems, reaches audiences far larger than many engaged in handling such situations ever imagined. There will thus be increasing pressures on intelligence agencies to deliver in a situation that is rapidly evolving.<o:p></o:p></div>
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During the Cold War, the US had imagined a project they called MK-Ultra, designed to attain mind control through the use of drugs. The 21st Century version of the concept is data-mining companies using personal data to analyse predictability. Their findings are available to the buyer or anyone who commissions the project – be it a foreign government, a private corporation, a terrorist organisation or organised crime syndicates. Those who can imagine this adequately will be better prepared to Reimagine Security.<o:p></o:p></div>
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The government recently announced that a stretch of the international border with Pakistan had been given a laser fence for round-the-clock surveillance, thermal imaging technology, underground sensors, fibre optic sensors and radar and sonar technologies to secure the border. This sounds promising. It is essential to be smart but also important not to readily inform the adversary about how smart our systems are. Moreover, smart border fencing also requires that such schemes have downstream coordination of smart communication, extreme mobility and speedy reaction with a counter force that can check incidents of intrusions.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Accurate advance intelligence is a prime requirement but so is how it is received and acted upon. Any system is as strong as its weakest link. In India, the weakest link has become the local police officer, the first face of law and order.<o:p></o:p></div>
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Our problem is very basic in many ways. What the country needs is a modern and smart police force, trained, sympathetic, educated and accountable. Such a force would use modern technology and weapons; would possess rapid physical mobility. It has to be trained in the use of modern technology and the gizmos that accompany it, keeping in mind that the days of the lathi and bamboo shields are over. The beat constable has to be the “go-to” person for the common citizen, the police station has to be a place for shelter and security. There has to be a human and humane face of the force with which the citizen is willing to interact and feels confident about providing information.<o:p></o:p></div>
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The police officers must be given an image makeover and their dignity restored. We can begin by giving them decent hours of work and a decent and safe place to live with family. It is the lowest rung, which has to be cutting edge, but is currently the weakest link in the chain. More than 150 years ago, the British-appointed Fraser Commission had given a bleak picture of the police force and described it as corrupt and oppressive, having failed to obtain the cooperation of the people. Seventy years after Independence, the view has not changed much. There has been politico-bureaucratic resistance among states against reforming the police force that is now considered increasingly under the thrall of the states’ political satraps. Unless these essential reforms, something that well-known police officers such as Prakash Singh have campaigned to bring for years, are implemented, a reimagined security apparatus will remain a dream.<o:p></o:p></div>
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<b>Source : Hindustan Times , September 27, 2018</b><o:p></o:p></div>
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Vikram Soodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17532738573788654660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7334994418553245876.post-41748533262239745182018-07-21T11:51:00.000+05:302018-07-21T13:42:33.788+05:30Democracy in Pakistan might go into deep coma<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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The process of subverting democracy and politicians began at the beginning of Pakistan.</div>
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Over the decades, the style and tactics may have changed, but not the intention. It has now been honed into a skill, except that coup-makers no longer come marching down from Rawalpindi led by the 111 Brigade of the 10th Division. Nowadays, the Pakistani Army carries out coups camouflaged in judicial robes.</div>
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On July 13, Nawaz Sharif and his daughter Maryam called the army’s bluff and dared to land in Pakistan to face certain imprisonment following a blatantly farcical trial. That very day, Pakistan was rocked by a massive terrorist attack in Mastung, Balochistan. At least 130 persons were killed and more than 200 injured. Among those killed was Nawabzada Siraj Raisani, for whom army chief Qamar Javed Bajwa had special words of condolence, since he was reputedly a person of the Deep State.</div>
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A few days prior to this, the Taliban killed Awami National Party’s Haroon Bilour at an election rally in Peshawar.</div>
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Haroon’s father Bashir Bilour had been assassinated while campaigning in 2013. Both the Bilour killings by the Taliban are meant to show their disapproval of the electoral system, frighten away the moderate Awami National Party (ANP) and its following to leave the political field open for Imran Khan and his mullah coterie.</div>
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The Mastung casualties would be explained away as collateral damage by a regime that seems to feel no need to protect its citizens. Just as the killing of 126 children at a Peshawar school on December 16, 2014, was explained. Elsewhere, these incidents are described as blowback, the unintended consequences of undeclared actions by the State. However, Pakistani military rulers are now seemingly suffering from Munchausen Syndrome. Clinically, this is defined as something that manifests itself in self-harm and bouts of pyromania in order to attract sympathy and attention. The Pakistani Army has been setting its neighbourhood on fire for decades and then claiming to be the injured innocent. This fire has now turned inward with killings of innocent Pakistanis by groups nurtured and trained by it.</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;">Rule Flows From the Barrel</span></div>
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The aim of the Pakistani military’s current exercise is to control democracy and secure its own future from its own people. For this, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s (PTI) Imran Khan is the frontman, and he is backed by radical Islamist leaders like Maulana Fazlur Rehman Khalil of the Harkat-ul-Jihad (banned by the UN) who is supporting the PTI contestant from Islamabad.</div>
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Other spoilers are from the ultra-right wing Milli Muslim League (Lashkar-e-Taiba-backed), Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat, formerly known as the radical sectarian Sipaha Sahaba, and the Barelvi Sunni Islamist group, Tehrik Labbaik Ya Rasool Allah.</div>
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They are all expected to bat for PTI by drawing away voters from the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz). Not for nothing is Imran Khan also referred to as Taliban Khan.</div>
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The direction Pakistan would take had been set from the day the country was created with 16% of the total population of undivided India, 17% of the territory and 30% of the armed forces.</div>
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It was going to be a top-heavy army whose maintenance would take away an alarge chunk of the budget. The malaise of autocracy among the politicians, bureaucrats and the army had set in very early.</div>
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This is shown by a former special secretary in the Cabinet secretariat Tilak Devasher, who in his remarkable new book, Pakistan: At the Helm, takes us through the various phases of the country’s history. There is no better way of understanding a leader’s mind than reading what he writes or listening to what he says. Devasher uses this technique when he relies on what Pakistani leaders said, or what the bureaucrats and army did, to keep control of Pakistan with themselves to the exclusion of others. Very soon, the army had won this contest. It has been so since.</div>
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Mohammad Ali Jinnah and Liaquat Ali Khan’s Pakistan ended soon after their death — the former by neglect and the latter by assassination. Jinnah’s hatred for ‘Hindu’ Congress and disdain for Mohandas Gandhi is well known — remember, Jinnah did not even mention Gandhi’s name when he spoke after his assassination. After all, Jinnah had declared that he had no equal, having won Pakistan with his stenographer and typewriter.</div>
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Thereafter, it was the era of Generals Ayub Khan, Yahya Khan, Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq and Pervez Musharraf, interspersed with periods of controlled democracies beginning with Zulfiqar Bhutto, an arrogant feudal who frightened the army to the extent that they hanged him. All Pakistani generals had the same characteristic of arrogance, misplaced beliefs of invincibility and extremely susceptible to flattery.</div>
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<span style="box-sizing: border-box; font-weight: 700; margin: 0px; max-width: 100%; padding: 0px;">Keys in the Ordnance Depot</span></div>
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Devasher brings out the army’s extremely patronising attitude towards civilians and politicians, of the Punjabi towards people of other regions in Pakistan, and religious superiority of Muslims over people of other religions, primarily Hindus. It is the story of Pakistan’s tragic-comic heroes.</div>
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The July 25 election results may well see Imran Khan in the throne room.</div>
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But do not miss the Khaki Eminence that will lurk in the shadows holding the keys to the kingdom. Had Nawaz Sharif been allowed to contest in a free and fair election and lost, one could still say that democracy in Pakistan was healthy. Instead, an Imran Khan victory through manipulation and coercion would mean that democracy in Pakistan has gone into deep coma.</div>
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<b>Source: Economic Times,, 21st July 2018 </b></div>
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Vikram Soodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17532738573788654660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7334994418553245876.post-6672106261657036652018-07-09T14:41:00.002+05:302018-07-09T14:41:52.932+05:30The decline and fall of Nawaz Sharif<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwFFxzaxFptSfyYnGypl4l8Wc8aYuCcCd1xk7ig7FbKi4tkJ4QylPBBmi-U_C7e0GHZWPsTyuYM1yJeH_j0PKVFqHLiqz59qKq8lUg4v7bOJNDY89DfKlPtDjVGuZ8H7Z2eRjwNsg8KXR1/s1600/Nawaz_Sharifapr13.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="450" data-original-width="600" height="300" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwFFxzaxFptSfyYnGypl4l8Wc8aYuCcCd1xk7ig7FbKi4tkJ4QylPBBmi-U_C7e0GHZWPsTyuYM1yJeH_j0PKVFqHLiqz59qKq8lUg4v7bOJNDY89DfKlPtDjVGuZ8H7Z2eRjwNsg8KXR1/s400/Nawaz_Sharifapr13.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px;">New Delhi [India], Jul 9 (ANI): In the doctrine of the Pakistan Army, talking to India means admitting defeat. On the other hand, engaging India in a war, even it means losing in it, is actually a victory </span>of<span style="background-color: white; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px;"> Pakistan and Islam.</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px;">The argument is- each time Pakistan loses, it is not because of Indians' superiority. Pakistan loses as it's not Islamic enough, and hence it must become more Islamic. And, that is how it has happened after every defeat.</span><br style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; line-height: 38px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px;">Besides, the only battles this Islamic Republic of Pakistan wins are actually those that it launches against its own people and politicians.</span><br style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; line-height: 38px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px;">The Army's battles with its politicians are as old as Pakistan, and these conflicts started even when Jinnah was alive. Pakistan's Islamic battles started with India in 1947 and have continued since then, in one form or the other.</span><br style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; line-height: 38px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px;">Midway through the Zardari government, the Generals began to get impatient. The infamous Memogate Scandal of 2011 was meant to destabilize Zardari, but he survived. </span><a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Husain%20Haqqani" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Husain Haqqani</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px;">, Pakistan's Ambassador in Washington DC, however, paid a price and had to quit.</span><br style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; line-height: 38px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px;">At this stage, it seems that </span><a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Tahir-ul-Qadri" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Tahir-ul-Qadri</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px;">, a Canadian scholar of the Pakistani origin, was drawn into the battle by the Generals. Qadri, the founder of Pakistan Awami Tehrik and Minhaj-ul-Quran, led a "million-men march" in January 2013. This led to the Islamabad Long March declaration with the government promising reforms and transparency in the election process. There were suspicions about Qadri's credentials and source of funding, given his known closeness to the Army. The march was seen as a ploy to scuttle elections that year and weaken the civilian governance.</span><br style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; line-height: 38px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px;">The current engagement between the Pakistan Army and the </span><a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Nawaz%20Sharif" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Nawaz Sharif</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px;"> government has a longer history, dating back to the time when Nawaz forced the Army Chief, General Jehangir Karamat to resign in October 1998. This was seen by many, especially the Army, as a violation of the Constitution. Then came the famous fall out between Nawaz and General </span><a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pervez%20Musharraf" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pervez Musharraf</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px;"> after Pakistan bit the dust in Kargil conflict, 1999.</span><br style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; line-height: 38px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px;">The Army-Nawaz relations have never been easy since his ouster by Musharraf and long exile in Saudi Arabia. Even in his first term (1990-1993) as the Prime Minister of Pakistan, </span><a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Nawaz%20Sharif" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Nawaz Sharif</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px;"> fancied himself as Fateh-e-Kabul. After the Soviets left Afghanistan; he wanted to amend the Constitution in order to get anointed as Amir-ul-Momineen (Commander of the Faithful). Nawaz, who allowed himself to be flattered by the coterie of Generals led by Musharraf, assumed that he could win the </span><a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Battle%20of%20Kargil" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Battle of Kargil</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px;">in May 1999 and go down in history as Fateh-e-Srinagar.</span><br style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; line-height: 38px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px;">The idea in Nawaz's latest tenure was to test out his early innings, keep him under pressure and prevent his re-election. His activities had already caused sleepless nights and their former protege was getting too independent. He was seen to be getting too close to Narendra Modi, and worse, he threatened to try a former Army Chief, </span><a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pervez%20Musharraf" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pervez Musharraf</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px;"> for treason.</span><br style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; line-height: 38px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px;">The present political crisis that has led to the ouster of Sharif from the current election battlefield, actually began in 2014, within a year of his Pakistan Muslim League- Nawaz or the PML (N) winning the 2013 elections. Pakistanis had rejoiced, not without reason, that democracy was taking roots in their country after more than 65 years of independence. But the feeling wasn't so in the Army.</span><br style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; line-height: 38px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px;">In this democratic transition, achieved through the ballot box, lurked hidden devils for the Generals. A repeat of this kind of transition in the next elections in 2018 would surely threaten their primacy and needed to be countered as soon as possible. The famous Azadi March of Imran Khan's PTI in August 2014, was a month-long protest against alleged rigging of the 2013 elections by </span><a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Nawaz%20Sharif" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Nawaz Sharif</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px;">. The Army refused to intervene. Qadri, undoubtedly encouraged by the Army, joined this protest march. This was followed by a sit-in strike in November 2017by Sunni Barelvi group demanding resignation of a minister and reaffirmation of the Blasphemy Law. The Army eventually intervened and Pakistan Army officers were caught on video distributing cash to the protesters.</span><br style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; line-height: 38px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px;">It must have been around that time that the Bonapartes of Pakistan decided to act. The leakage of the Panama Papers, surfaced in 2016, was the excuse Army needed to intervene. The Supreme Court disqualified Nawaz in 2017 from holding any public office for life and later also barred him from holding any position in the PML (N). The latest setback caused by the conviction in money-laundering case, is the decision of the National Accountability Bureau, which found Nawaz and his political aspirant daughter Mariam, guilty of corruption in the Avenfield Properties (London) case. Nawaz has been sentenced to 10 years' imprisonment and his daughter to seven years, in addition to hefty fines on both.</span><br style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; line-height: 38px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px;">Although Nawaz put a brave front and asserted he would return to Pakistan from London as soon as his ailing wife recovers, it is not known if he will ever come back. Without him at the hustings, the PML (N) election campaign seems to be going adrift, as his brother Shahbaz Sharif, who has his own prime ministerial ambitions, just does not have the charisma of Nawaz. The media is under pressure, and a number of right wing parties like the Jamat-ut-Dawa, are using the little known outfit Allahu Akbar Party, for nominating 265 candidates, who will be spoilers for PML (N). These parties may not themselves win seats but are bound to take away some votes from the mainstream parties. This will create space for Imran Khan in Punjab, and he would be able to get a sizable number of seats. Nawaz is still considered as a force to be reckoned with but his return would surely lead to his arrest and the consequential sympathy factor is difficult to calculate.</span><br style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; line-height: 38px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px;">In the past, Nawaz showed resilience when 18 years ago, during the reign of General Musharraf, he was sentenced to 14 years' imprisonment and was barred to contest elections for 21 years. But five years ago, all was forgiven, a deal was struck and Nawaz came back to contest and win elections. Maybe he still has the same spirit but maybe he does not have that much time.</span><br style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; line-height: 38px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px;">There are other imponderables. It is quite possible the Army would prefer the more amenable and vulnerable Shahbaz Sharif as prime minister over Imran Khan. In any case, neither candidate should secure enough seats to act independently of the Army.</span><br style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; line-height: 38px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px;">Micromanaging and manipulating elections and candidates is a better way to stage a coup than sending in the 111 Brigade from Rawalpindi.</span><br style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; line-height: 38px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px;" /><span style="background-color: white; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px;">Unfortunately, so long as the Pakistan Army remains fixed on a doctrine that concentrates solely on being anti-India, it is not going to allow elected politicians any freedom to decide policies. It is also unfortunate because under its Army's tutelage, Pakistan continues to swing increasingly towards radicalism and intolerance. Mainstreaming jihadists and bringing them into the political arena will ultimately rebound on the country. The idea of political parties, who have thousands of trained, armed and murderous militants as political workers, should normally be chilling but the Pakistani state apparently treats them as social workers. One can already see the kind of statements emanating from leaders like Imran Khan with unequivocal support to the recent Islamabad High Court judgement on the Khatme Nabuwat case that disallows Ahmediyas to use Muslim names. With barely three weeks to go for Pakistani general elections, the situation looks unclear. It may not be a full stop for </span><a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Nawaz%20Sharif" style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Nawaz Sharif</a><span style="background-color: white; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px;"> but there is definitely a question mark. Whoever wins, nothing will change for India under present circumstances. (ANI)</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: white; font-family: proregular, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 17.18px; letter-spacing: 0.5px;"><b>Source : ANI , 9th July 2018 </b></span></div>
Vikram Soodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17532738573788654660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7334994418553245876.post-44700731924058591162018-05-28T15:24:00.000+05:302018-05-28T15:24:05.556+05:30Pakistan's Jihadi corps and its Commander<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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New Delhi [India], April 7 (ANI): For the <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a>i establishment, <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Hafiz%20Muhammed%20Saeed" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Hafiz Muhammed Saeed</a> is no mere mortal. He is their Most Favoured Jihadi. The association between Hafiz Saeed and the <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a>i establishment is now over 30 years old and the bond has only grown stronger.</div>
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Besides, Saeed is an amenable and loyal jihadi. Unlike the other India-specific jihadi Masood Azhar of the Jaish-e-Mohammed, whose jihadis tried to assassinate General Musharraf, Hafiz Saeed's Lashkar-e-Tayyaba are not just Caliphate's soldiers, they are also Rawalpindi's main jihadi strike corps for the Kashmir theatre. He is no pawn; he is more like the versatile Queen on the chessboard, he can be moved in any direction any time as many times as necessary.</div>
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Added to that, he can be made to say and do things against archenemy India as and when desired. Ghazwa-e-Hind is his clarion call. Gradually over time, Saeed's Khaki Masters had successfully built, Jamaat-ut-Dawa, the political arm of the Lashkar- e-Tayyaba as a charity and welfare organisation.</div>
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The bonds are so strong that last year the <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a>i rulers had contemplated mainstreaming Saeed and in effect, mainstreaming jihad by letting him form a political party that would contest elections scheduled later in 2018. He was expected to garner quite a few votes and attain respectability in the western eyes as a 'reformed' jihadi.</div>
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It would seem that arrangements are being made ahead of the forthcoming elections to have truly amenable persons who are able to say what is expected of them or do as told. The idea was also to save Saeed from further action by an angry US President but it ended up appearing as the most audacious move by the Generals of <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a>. The idea that Hafiz Saeed would then represent <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a> or its government could be accepted with a shudder or as reflecting the true reality of modern <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a>.</div>
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Currently however, Hafiz Saeed has been in a bit of a bother. The earlier practice of locking him but actually granting him sanctuary under the pretext of arrest because of his activities, does not seem to be working very well. In the past, whenever faced with pressure from the west or the UN to act against terrorism, <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a>is have obfuscated and prevaricated. A few cosmetic actions are taken, the issue is gets lost or forgotten in the fog of a global war on terror or the organisation is allowed to resurface in another incarnation.</div>
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It is perhaps no coincidence that Donald Trump assumed office as President on January 21, 2017 and <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a>i authorities placed Hafiz Saeed under house arrest on January 30. The Nawaz Sharif government was showing its sincerity in tackling terror to the new president and cited the listing by the UNSC Sanctions Committee in 2011. The <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a>Interior Minister Choudhry Nisar Ali announced loftily that <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a> was fulfilling its obligations. As in the past, the JuD reappeared in a new name - TehreekAzadi Jammu and Kashmir (TAJK - Movement for Freedom of Kashmir).</div>
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Earlier, Hafiz Saeed's Lashkar-e-Tayyabahad been banned on January 14, 2002, two days after the famous General Musharraf speech promising support to US-led war on terror. The party had renamed itself Jamaat-ut-Dawa and later functioned under the name of its charity, Falah-e-Insaniat Foundation.</div>
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In May 2008, the United States Department of the Treasury designated Hafiz Saeed as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist under Executive Order 13224. The US action in May 2008 did not deter the LeT and its masters from carrying out the terror attack in Mumbai in November 2008. It said LeT and several of its front organisations, leaders, and operatives remain under both State Department and Treasury Department sanctions. Since 2012, the United States has offered a $10 million reward for information bringing Saeed to justice.UNSC Resolution 1267 in December 2008 following the November 2008 Mumbai attack individually designated Saeed as a terrorist.</div>
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This time the U.S. government has not taken kindly to the various measures that the <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a> government has taken. The US government viewed the release of Hafiz Saeed in November and the plans to let him organise a new political party with grave misgivings. The United States reacted sharply when it announced on April 2 that it had designated Milli Muslim League (MML) as a foreign terrorist group because it was operating as a front for Lashkar-e Taiba (LeT) which is also on the U.S. terrorist list. Despite the listing or maybe because of it, the MML has asserted it will participate in the elections.</div>
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Another group allegedly linked to LeT and the newly formed, Tehreek-e-Azadi-e-Kashmir, was also added to the U.S. terrorist list. It is well known that the United States has offered a $10 million reward for information leading to the arrest and conviction of Saeed. However, so far, Hafiz Saeed has faced no great hindrance in his activities; he has been addressing rallies and attending functions.</div>
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Despite various resolutions, particularly in the past decade or so, <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a> was able to circumvent these largely because of an inability to pressure <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a> adequately. Recent actions by <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a> would suggest that the heat is being turned up. The decision of the Financial Action Task Force in February to put <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a> on the grey list in June 2018 was a setback despite China and Saudi Arabia on the committee.</div>
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This forced a flutter of activity in <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a>. 148 properties of JuD and FIF in the Punjab were seized and other properties in Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit Baltistan as well as Pak Occupied Kashmir. <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a> will have to prepare an action plan along with FATF to curb terror funding and money laundering. <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a>'s past record on both terror financing and recruitment of jihadis has been deliberately abysmal and there is room for skepticism here.</div>
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The UNSC consolidated list of terrorist organisations and individuals released on April 3, features as many as 139 names. This galaxy includes include Hafiz Saeed and Dawood Ibrahim and other personages like Ayman Al-Zawahiri along with his associates are suspected to be hiding somewhere in the Afghanistan-<a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a> border regions. Lashkar-e-Taiba'smedia person, YahyaMujahid and Hafiz Saeed's deputies, Abdul Salaam and Zafar Iqbal, are also in the list. ZakiurRehmanLakhvi, the LeT chief of military operations who has also been associated with al Qaeda, was placed on the terror list and has an Interpol warrant issued against him, like the others.</div>
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Past U.S. presidents have threatened harsh action but never got around to following this threat. Large infusions of economic and military worked the other way. It merely strengthened the military. President Trump has so far been showing more determination not only on controlling terrorism but several other issues ranging from trade to nuclear matters. Maye this is for real this time, considering that in January 2018 the US suspended the US $ 1.3 billion military aid. It is not that his predecessors did not understand or did not know what was going on it was just that they had the wrong end of the argument.</div>
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They never pressed <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a> on India-specific terrorists. Given that, <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a>'s entire security and foreign policy hinged on the India threat. If they had pushed <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a> on this front the <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a>is would have been would have been morepliable on the Taliban front. Pushing <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a> to deliver on the Taliban without pushing on the Indian front left the <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a>is free to do what they really wanted to do all the time.</div>
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This time <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a> may have miscalculated the extent of frustration in DC or US willingness to take harsh steps. The argument that <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a> is a nuclear weapons state and hence US choices are limited only feeds into the <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a>i logic that it can continue to increase and improve its arsenal and simultaneously support terrorism. In their paper in February 2017, Lisa Curtis and Husain Haqqani (A New U.S. Approach to <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a>-Enforcing Aid Conditions without Cutting Ties - Hudson Institute) argued that eight years of Obama's presidency had been spent in trying to coax <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a> through personal ties to change policy. <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a> disregarded all these attempts both on the Afghanistan and India borders.</div>
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The US President has to make clear that if <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a> wishes to be an ally it must behave like one and if it wants to be treated as a responsible member of the international community it must behave like one. Harbouring terrorists of various hues, promoting terrorism in the neighbourhood and wherever else are not what responsible states do and allies do not follow their own agendas contrary to agreed ones.</div>
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This message, that those responsible for these erroneous policies must pay a price, has never been effectively delivered in the past. Or will there be wiggle room for <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a>, as in the past?</div>
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<b>Source ; ANI , 7th April 2018 </b></div>
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Vikram Soodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17532738573788654660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7334994418553245876.post-55477699976855895662018-05-28T15:22:00.003+05:302018-05-28T15:22:47.154+05:30In election year, Pak's 'Deep State' closing in<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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New Delhi [India], April 20 (ANI): The dynasts of Pakistan are at play again now that the <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=election" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">election</a> season has begun. The main players of this drama are the Dynasts of Jat Umra, the home of the Nawaz Sharif dynasty and the dynasts of Larkana, the home of Sindhi Wadera Asif Zardari, and his son Bilawal Bhutto Zardari.</div>
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Asif Zardari had inherited Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party as she had decreed in her will. Bilawal is still a greenhorn in politics unlike his father under whose presidency the PPP managed to complete its full five years in office. This performance made history.</div>
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The other dynast, Nawaz Sharif has a successor dynast in his daughter Maryam, an active politician, but a judicial decision dethroned him for life. Many describe the Supreme Court decision as a carefully manicured coup by an army that has developed this technique into a fine art. The third dynast is not really a dynast yet as he has no carefully appointed successors. The Khan of BannaGali's dynasty here may have many contenders from his two subsequent wives, should he - Imran Khan - attain some greatness in the future. For the moment, he is a feudal lord with Islamist leanings who owns a political party, the Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf.</div>
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The biggest loser in the run-up has been Sharif. Predictably, there are murmurs within the PML (N) and some have already started to jump ship. In the long term, it is now a question of his legacy and the political future of his heir and daughter Maryam. He allowed too many own goals to be either scored because he was complacent or failed to accurately read the mind of the military.</div>
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Rawalpindi had presumably reasoned that given Nawaz's past performance, he was likely to win the next term as well. This would make him the first prime minister whose party had not only completed a full term in office, but had also won another five years. A re-elected PML (N) in 2018 would imply continuous democratic rule for 15 years. This would mean that democracy was taking root in Pakistan and elected leaders would be able to exercise their minds. This would reduce the army's role to a normal one in a normal country, and no longer an army that owned a country.</div>
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The military moves on the basis of abilities and not just on intentions of the adversary. Once it assesses the threat, it moves on all phalanxes to cover all contingencies. In this case, Sharif, a protege of the army in General Zia's time, was the declared main threat to the army's continued primacy. Sharif had the ability and intention to seek punishment for former Army Chief General Musharraf. Sending a former army chief, however unpopular, to jail would be seen as blasphemy in the <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan%20Army" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan Army</a> as this was an attack on its sovereignty and supremacy. Almost certainly, even more horrific for the army, was that Sharif would move and most probably succeed in making peace with India.</div>
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The trouble with Pakistan's main political leaders of the time has been that Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif had very little trust in each other which prevented them from seeing that their main adversary was the army. Both were exiled by General Musharraf and both suffered from political manoeuvres engineered by the army in the 1990s when they lost power to each other twice. Eventually, Nawaz lost when Musharraf exiled him in 1999. Benazir and Nawaz ignited many hopes that the two largest parties in Pakistan would work together against common adversaries when they signed their 36-point Charter of Democracy in May 2006.</div>
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Nothing of the sort happened as differences and suspicions overtook noble ideals. Benazir returned after Musharraf brought in the National Reconciliation Order, but was assassinated in December 2007. The <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=election" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">election</a>s in 2008 and 2013 only produced endless and induced political instability in Pakistan.</div>
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There was endless pressure on Asif Zardari when the 'Establishment' pushed cases of money laundering and undisclosed Swiss bank accounts. The famous Memogate episode was the army's way of putting pressure on Zardari. Apparently, Nawaz now regrets having become a part of the scam. Just before the 2013 <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=election" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">election</a>s, Tahir- ul-Qadri of the Hizb-ut-Tehrir was imported from Canada to launch protests against the PPP government, and then later in the same year, Imran Khan used Qadri for protests against Sharif's <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=election" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">election</a>.</div>
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The Supreme Court helped along in the Panamagate Case to try and fix Sharif. The recent manipulation to fix the Balochistan Assembly through defections, the massive media curbs, the muzzling of TV channels and censoring of news about the Pashtun protests are signs that the "Deep State" is closing in. Not satisfied with introducing the Lashkar-e-Tayyaba mentor Hafiz Saeed as a mainstream political leader, the powers that be seem to be letting the Barelvi grouping Tehrik-e-Labbaik and the rabidly sectarian Sunni AhleSunnatWalJamaat try and undermine the elected governments.</div>
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Today, Sharif undoubtedly regrets some of his decisions. One of them was when the PML (N) stubbornly refused to replace the politically-motivated National Accountability Bureau with an independent and powerful National Accountability Commission. The other was when the 18th Amendment was being passed in 2010 with the aim of denying the President the right to unilaterally dissolve parliament, the PPP had suggested that Article 62 1(f) be removed, but Sharif refused. This is the clause that has now been used by the judiciary with great satisfaction. It is not going to be easy to take this power away from their Lordships. The situation today is that the military-civil authority balance has shifted even further in favour of the military and now the judiciary is complicit in this.</div>
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It is unlikely that Article 62 (1) (f) will be amended, much less removed from the statute books. Regulations like the Blasphemy Law or even Article 62 which have religious connotations are now permanent parts of Pakistani law. This article requires leaders to be sadiq and ameen (honest and righteous) something that is derived from Quranic sources and the life of Prophet Mohammed. Justice Umar Ata Bandial had said this while reading out the judgement on the interpretation about the length of time for which a politician can be debarred under this section.</div>
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The stage is now set for the polls. The tallest figure has been disqualified for life, his daughter is still under a cloud because Panama Gate charges against her have not been cleared, the PPP does not have a worthy enough candidate and Imran Khan has limited reach and some fear, limited intelligence as well.</div>
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This leaves the field wide open for a weak leadership truly beholden to the army. And, the army would have achieved its objective without having to call in the 111 Brigade form Rawalpindi.</div>
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<b>Source : ANI 20th April 2018 </b></div>
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Vikram Soodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17532738573788654660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7334994418553245876.post-56845880484881841722018-05-28T15:21:00.001+05:302018-05-28T15:21:59.907+05:30The Empire Strikes Back, in panic<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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New Delhi [India], April 30 (ANI): It was in December 2010 that Mohammed Bouazizi, a Tunisian street vendor, self-immolated himself outside the governor's office in Sidi Bouzid. He died protesting against police corruption, repeated humiliation and administrative indifference.</div>
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This spark lit a flame in Tunisia and protests quickly spread to other parts of the Arab world, transforming into what was then known as the Arab Spring. Bouazizi's act had reflected the simmering public anger among a people that had no means to seek redress.</div>
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In Pakistan, the murder of a young aspiring fashion model, Naqeebullah Mehsud, in Karachi last January in a staged encounter, may not have led to the kind of results that the Tunisian self-immolation evoked. Yet, the sustained protests in the last three that have followed only highlight the plight and pent up anger among the Pashtun. This has forced the establishment into what looks like panic reactions.</div>
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The protests have been peaceful and Pashtun men, women and even children have come from villages to have attended rallies beginning in Islamabad in January followed by other rallies in Peshawar, Lahore, Quetta, Zhob, Qilla Saifullah and parts of FATA with another one planned in Karachi on May 12.</div>
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At all these rallies, the leaders of the movement described their movement as apolitical, non-violent and seeking peaceful solutions to their problems; they insist they are not anti-Pakistan nor are they secessionists. Yet the Pashtun were bitter when PTM leader Manzoor Pashteen told the BBC that Waziristan was their(Pakistan state's) captured territory and it had taken the Pashtun 30 years to realise that they had fought the Soviets not for Islam but for American money.</div>
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The sufferings of those living in FATA have been particularly acute and most Pashtun narrate similar harrowing stories ever since the Afghan jihad. Afghan refugees had poured into FATA, Balochistan and beyond in hundreds of thousands in that decade.</div>
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The 1990s saw the Taliban largely active in Afghanistan, fighting other Afghans with Pakistani assistance. Pashtun troubles increased when the Taliban crossed over into FATA in their thousands after the American onslaught in Afghanistan beginning October 2001.</div>
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Along came Al Qaeda and their allies from among other Arabs, Chechens, Uzbeks and Uighurs as they made FATA their sanctuary. The Tehrik Taliban Pakistan was also born there and the entire lot put together made life unlivable for local Waziris, Mehsuds, Orakzais and all those other tribes who had lived in the region for centuries.</div>
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When American drones were not targeting FATA, the Pashtun had to contend with occasional Pakistan military raids and, by 2003, the Taliban were busy trying to create an Islamic emirate in FATA.</div>
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Islamabad, meanwhile, continued with action under the draconian and manifestly unfair Frontier Crimes Regulation, punishing an entire village or clan for a perceived violation by an individual. The pressure of these extremists, the continued American attacks, the excesses of the various Islamic terrorists and the Pakistan Army raids in 2007, pushed more Pashtun out from FATA to an urban centre like Karachi. FATA had become a destitute region. One of these military offensives in 2014 displaced a million Pashtun. FATA was by then suffering from full spectrum poverty with three-quarters of the population lacking all basic facilities like education, water, electricity, health. The scotched-earth tactics of the extremists, who would destroy orchards and wells, accompanied all this.</div>
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The Pashtun lived through this and now they want their rights. They want an answer to the enforced disappearances and social media depicts little children looking for their fathers. They want their area to be safe from the mines embedded there. The Pashtun leadership now asserts that this is no longer a movement for the protection of Pashtun rights alone; it is now a movement for all of Pakistan. Slogans like "Yeh jo deheshtgardi gardi isske peeche wardi hai" would have unnerved the Pakistan establishment, particularly the Army which has a 15-20 percentage Pashtun component among officers and 20-25 percent representation in the Other ranks. It naturally does not want Pashtun resentment to find expression in the army.</div>
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The reaction of the establishment has been along expected lines. First the blame was on engineered protests, implying a foreign hand. Then an attempt to portray the movement as anti-national and anti-Islamic has begun. Pashtun leaders have said they were receiving threats from Islamic extremists. Soon enough media censorship was enforced without any subtlety. The country's biggest news channel GeoTV, of the Jang Group, was the first target when its national coverage was abruptly terminated. The mainstream print media was gently coerced into submission and told not to cover the PTM's activities. Pakistan's leading daily, Dawn, had an editorial which some analysts have remarked indicated that the paper had been disciplined as it advised the PTM to negotiate with the State and advised against its May 12 rally. The PTM had suggested that the May 12 rally concerned all Pakistanis and was not an ethnic issue, thus making it a non-ethnic national democratic issue. Apparently, the Deep State has a problem with such exhibitions of solidarity.</div>
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The Pakistani media is commonly known to be free and courageous when the going is good but also known to wilt easily under pressure. Icons like Najam Sethi and Hamid Mir know what it means to cross red lines. Sethi had received a midnight knock in 1999 after he returned from a conference in New Delhi where he had made some 'indiscreet' comments, while Mir survived a bullet put through him for being too inquisitive.</div>
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Neither Daniel Pearl of the Wall Street Journal nor Saleem Shahzad of Asian Times were spared when both were seen to be getting too close to the real truth. Pearl's execution was shown on TV in 2002, while Shahzad's body was found in a ditch in 2011. Both had been terminated with extreme prejudice.</div>
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These are some of the ways in which messaging is done in Pakistan. Advisories on what to cover, how to cover and what not to cover are now frequent. Pakistan's biggest media group -- the Jang Group -- has often been in the Deep State's cross-hairs. Its billionaire owner Mir Shakilur Rehman has often been a target of state ire.</div>
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The formula is simple and effective -- Hunt for the Big Game -- the smaller beings will scurry for cover. Stories that the agitation had been started by those politicians, who did not favour a merger of FATA with Khyber PakhtunKhwa, have begun to do the rounds.</div>
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Meanwhile, Imran Khan's huge rally in Lahore on April 28 indicates that preparations for elections have begun. The PTM rally in Swat, probably bigger and more significant than the one in Lahore, went obediently unreported in the mainstream media.</div>
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The Awami Nationalist Party, the party of Khan Abdul Wali Khan, has rebuked the PTM, and is probably looking for post-election benefits.</div>
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The Supreme Court has also debarred another PML (N) stalwart, Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif from politics.</div>
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The Deep State would want all this cleaned before they announce the next stage for the election process of forming caretaker governments as a prelude to elections. This may not solve the Pashtun problem.</div>
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<b>Source : ANi, 30th April 2018 </b></div>
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Vikram Soodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17532738573788654660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7334994418553245876.post-24399402013348720002018-05-28T12:59:00.000+05:302018-05-28T12:59:38.611+05:30National Security: Time to act, not react or appease<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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R Thirumani, who had come on holiday to Kashmir with his family, was killed by stone-pelters earlier this month. His only misfortune is that he was in the wrong place at the wrong time.</div>
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One of those 3,970 ‘stone-pelters’ pardoned by chief minister Mehbooba Mufti three months ago killed Thirumani. As has been typical in such cases, the response from the many normally loquacious commentators has been muted. It is necessary to remind them, for whatever it is worth, that these stone-pelters were responsible for injuries to over 11,566 security personnel and thousands of civilians.</div>
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It took a Kashmiri politician, Peoples Democratic Party’s Yasir Reshi, to remind us what many Kashmiris have become. He called them ‘qatils’ (murderers) for killing an innocent young tourist. ‘Kashmiriyat’ (Kashmir’s inclusive tolerance) and ‘insaaniyat’ (humanism) were gone, he added.</div>
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What he did not say was that ‘Islamiyat’ has taken over. We prefer to call them stone-pelters as we have a tendency of not wanting to face the truth. These stone-pelters are just thugs on daily wages. Some of us agonise over the killing of a professor-turned-terrorist. But there is no human-interest story about Thirumani of the kind that appears when security forces shoot down a terrorist.</div>
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We forget that Osama bin Laden was an engineer, Ayman Al Zawahiri a dentist and Hafiz Saeed a professor. It is this double standard that has made many cynical about Reshi’s agony. Kashmir is in this present state largely because of repeated mistakes by our politicians for the last three decades.</div>
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Good governance was never a priority. Former National Conference chief minister Farooq Abdullah was dethroned through a ‘palace coup’ in 1984, and his brother-in-law, Gul Mohammed Shah, replaced him, who began to coddle the Islamists. This was the beginning of the decline. The kidnapping of Rubaiyya Syed, daughter of then J& K home minister Mufti Mehmood Sayeed, and the manner in which the inept VP Singh government caved into the kidnappers’ demands, was another abject landmark. This was the spark that lit the fire in the 1990s.</div>
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Pakistan unleashed all its jihadi forces. Indian overtures like the Lahore bus were negated by Kargil intrusions. For long after, and through many governments, India oscillated between threatening to teach Pakistan a lesson and making overtures of peace.</div>
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For long, we have believed that cyclical gestures of generosity would bring the Pakistani government around. We simply failed to grasp that the Pakistani army cannot afford peace with India for fear that it will lose a country it owns. Besides, a country that has an estimated 100,000 bigots armed for jihad cannot afford peace with India because demobilised jihadis will become an internal menace for Pakistan.</div>
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The pattern has been that each time politicians muddy the situation, security forces have to step in to clean the mess. Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee called off the November 2000 Ramzan ceasefire six months after terrorist violence increased. A ceasefire at the beginning of the jihadis’ summer offensive is just what they needed. After relentless pressure from armed forces, this allowed them to recoup and regroup for continued terrorist activity.</div>
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Besides, as Indian Army veteran, Major Surendra Poonia asked, “Why do we want ceasefires in the month of Ramzan? Why not during Diwali/Durga Puja, or Christmas?” Magnanimous gestures and grand concessions are a function of strength and victory. Otherwise, they are appeasement.</div>
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In any negotiations with insurgents, GoI will necessarily be making concessions because insurgents have nothing to give in return. Premature negotiations also tantamount to appeasement. Periodic sops have become an entitlement.</div>
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Indian Security Forces, including the Jammu and Kashmir Police, are getting on top of the situation with a number of intelligence-related operations. It is only when government forces have won on the ground that GoI can call the insurgents for talks. Or, better still, when the insurgents seek negotiations.</div>
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Let us also not get beguiled by a glib talk from Pakistan’s army chief Qamar Javed Bajwa about peace with India. This is only for effect and has happened before. The general is currently preoccupied. He has to retain the army’s primacy in Pakistan to manipulate elections, mainstream Pakistan’s senior-most jihadis, subdue the restive Pashtuns and control Afghanistan.</div>
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Pakistan has consistently taken advantage of India’s vacillation. Instead, what India needs is to give up policies of political expediency and appeasement in the Valley. In dealing with Pakistan, we must cease to be merely reactive and perpetually hopeful that Pakistan policies towards India will change. Instead, we need to draw up our own plan of action that hurts the opposition.</div>
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<b>Source : Economic Times, May 25, 2018 </b></div>
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Vikram Soodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17532738573788654660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7334994418553245876.post-76607021090357877802018-03-29T11:34:00.003+05:302018-03-29T11:34:54.469+05:30New American NSA Bolton is bad News for Pakistan<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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New Delhi [India], Mar.28 (ANI): During the presidency of George W Bush, a strong cabal of neo-con hawks guided his foreign policy and got the president into all sorts of failures. Prominent among them were Paul Wolfowitz, Richard Perle, John Bolton and others. Vice President Dick Cheney and Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld were, however, the true leaders of a hard-line policy on Iraq in 2002-03.</div>
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A badly configured and unfinished war in Afghanistan, a foolish misadventure in Iraq, and an inability to control Pakistan in the so-called Global War on Terror, left the United States trying to fend off Iran, a regional power that was becoming strong enough to challenge American interests.</div>
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Later, as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Bolton would in October 2007, advocate a similar hardline policy against Iran.</div>
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Many now expect that President Trump's next National Security Advisor, Bolton, would pursue similar hardline policies against Iran and North Korea with greater determination and tenacity.</div>
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The underlying fear of course being that this could take Washington closer to war than ever before. This naturally depends on two factors - (1) Bolton's own life expectancy in the Trump uncertain order of things and (2) Trump's own attention span.</div>
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However, handling Afghanistan in Pakistan is an area where Bolton's hardline policies could bear better results without that risk of war involving American troops.</div>
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Some analysts assess that Bolton is not the kind who will spoil for a war in Iran for fear of destabilising the energy-rich West Asia at a time when it is already unstable and Russia and China now having a high profile there.</div>
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Nuclear unpredictability of the kind spread by North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, would also be a dampener on Bolton's firebrand policies. Other analysts feel that Bolton is one man who could pressure Pakistan where the United States has no such risks and burnish his reputation as the ultimate hardliner.</div>
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If the United States really wants to see peace in Afghanistan, it must stop pursuing mindless dreams like asking religious leaders to pressure the Taliban to talk to the Afghan leaders. Instead, it must pursue where the battle really originates - in Pakistan. Ultimately, Bolton or whoever else will decide what they perceive to be in U.S. interests.</div>
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This will not be easy for an America that has usually threatened Pakistan only to deceive itself or promised India stern action only failed to deliver.</div>
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One can see differences, if not fissures in U.S. policy. While the U.S. President is all brimstone and fire, new nuclear sanctions have been imposed, the Pentagon is speaking in far more conciliatory terms. Establishments and advisers change in the U.S. in eight, if not four, years. In the present dispensation, this has been much more frequent. The very permanent mindset of GHQ Pakistan will exploit this to their maximum advantage.</div>
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The civil administration, politicians and pliable journalists will be let loose on Afghanistan and the U.S. speaking the language of conciliation, peace and brotherhood of Islam. Meanwhile, ISI proxies, the Haqqani Terrorist Network, which is more than just an adjunct of the Taliban, will continue to be marauders in Afghanistan. India-specific terror groups - Lashkar-e-Tayyaba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, will be kept well-heeled and deployed at will.</div>
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As long as the US soft pedals, Pakistan's assistance and support to groups like the Haqqani Network, will keep the latter's life support system intact and the Pakistan Army sees no incentive or urgency to change this.</div>
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Pakistan's rulers (i.e. the military) will make some cosmetic changes of incumbents handling crucial matters, rope in foreign ambassadors, diplomats, military attaches and foreign media based in Islamabad, to sell their sob stories of being victims of terror fighting America's war.</div>
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This is a worn out decades-old script churned out year after year, for president after president and administration after administration. This tactic is effective because there is no new thought in Washington D.C. Despite volumes of analytical reports and literature by experts that the solution to the problem lies in an appropriately hard stance in Pakistan rather than indulgence, the policy has not changed.</div>
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At the same time, the tactic would be to threaten the United States indirectly by hinting that the Russians are showing renewed interest in Afghanistan and wooing Pakistan.</div>
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The so-called Bajwa Doctrine, which his acolytes laud as new paths to Pakistan strategic thought, is essentially the same that Generals Ayub to Raheel Sharif have believed and practiced, except that Ayub and Musharraf were enlightened moderates and Zia was a useful Islamist.</div>
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Pakistan's military opinion of their politicians varies from condescension to contempt. It would want to restrict their power to dissolve assemblies instead of the president - a power acquired through the 18th Amendment. They want this rolled back. They disapprove of regional autonomy and prefer a strong centralised system. It took Admiral Mullen (considered one of the most influential Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff in history), some time to realise that General Kayani was stringing him along. This is something the Pakistan establishment has done to the Americans for decades.</div>
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Those who hope that Bolton will read the riot act to Pakistan may want to pause to see how he understands Pakistan tactics and how his policy evolves. It remains to be seen how much and how soon American policy makers get beguiled into assuming that the Bajwa Doctrine portrayed as being transformational in seeking peace with Afghanistan and Iran while being patient with what has been described as a "stubborn" Modi.</div>
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The Deep State has become audacious enough to try to mainstream Hafiz Saeed as a leader of an approved political party that can contest general elections scheduled for mid-year.</div>
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All is not well inside the Pashtun regions of Pakistan. Pakistan is seemingly vulnerable in its north-west with Pashtun awakening seeking an end to the decades-old Pakistani policies. The British had divided the Pashtun with the Durand Line, they further divided the Pashtun within what was at that time India, into FATA and NWFP, also within that into tribal and settled areas, and finally, merged southern Pashtun regions into British Balochistan.</div>
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Pakistan not only continued these imperial policies of inbuilt discrimination and hardship, but its policies since the Afghan jihad drove many Pashtun out of their traditional homes seeking shelter in alien. and at times, hostile Karachi or other parts of the Pakhtukhwa province. The Pashtun feel they have been exploited and used by the Pakistan establishment and are now seek redemption.</div>
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So far, the Pashtuns have been orderly and peaceful in their protests fended off the state's usual strong-arm tactics of coercion and trying to discredit the movement as anti-national or politicise it through amenable politicians along with media silence.</div>
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Enforced disappearances of journalists or open intimidation of those who want to cover the forbidden area of FATA or their contacts are the most common tactics. This is what autocratic or military regimes do - they feel secure once they have blindfolded or gagged their population. Voluntary silence may mean consent but enforced silence can only be sullen and rebellious.</div>
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The United States may want to take notice of this development and India must not only remain engaged in Afghanistan but also sharpen its profile there.</div>
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The views expressed in the above article are that of Mr. Vikram Sood.</div>
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<b>Source : Business Standard , 28th March 2018 </b></div>
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Vikram Soodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17532738573788654660noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7334994418553245876.post-9610882669684223142018-03-19T15:19:00.001+05:302018-03-19T15:19:48.614+05:30Pakistan's internal politics guides harassment of Indian diplomats<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
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Harassment of <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Indian%20diplomats" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Indian diplomats</a> in <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a> used to be common in the past. <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Indian%20diplomats" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Indian diplomats</a> posted in <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a> would return home after completion of their tour of duty with tales of horrific and obnoxious acts of <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=harassment" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">harassment</a>of their families and children. Certain categories were special targets. Things were presumably quiet in recent times. The recent upsurge is a measure of deteriorating <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=bilateral%20relations" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">bilateral relations</a>. <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a> has, as expected, alleged <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=harassment" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">harassment</a> of their mission's staff.</div>
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<a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a>i reaction may have something to do with India but also something more to do with the internal domestic scene and the forthcoming elections. The Deep State would like the <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a> Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) relegated and substituted by a party of choice. The PML (N) under Mian<a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=%20Nawaz%20Sharif" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;"> Nawaz Sharif</a> has been far too defiant despite all the pressure, the judiciary included, that the Deep State has put on him. A politician even thinking he can be independent of the Army is bad news for the Army and definitely not good for the politician.</div>
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The plan at this stage could be to have a less-than-clever man, who is gullible with an outsized ego at the helm. Imran Khan of the <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a> TehrikInsaf party is assumed to be more suitable. His problem would be to make a dent in the Punjab province and break the hold of the Sharif Bothers. Imran Khan would need props for the Punjab theatre. Mainstreaming<a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=%20Hafiz%20Saeed" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;"> Hafiz Saeed</a> of the<a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=%20JUD" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;"> JUD</a> is presumably to serve multiple purposes. Legitimisation by itself is a virtue for a terrorist organisation, which can now openly collect funds and take part in political activity,<a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=%20Hafiz%20Saeed" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;"> Hafiz Saeed</a> can campaign for himself and his associates. This is, however, not a new phenomenon. In 2013, ahead of the general elections, the PML(N) had come to an understanding with the rabidly anti-Shia AhleSunnatWalJamaat for seat-to-seat adjustments. The chief of the rabidly anti-Shia DeobandhiSipah-e-Sahaba, Azam Tariq was three times member of <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a>'s national parliament. He contested his last elections in 2002 while in police custody, provided the crucial one-seat majority to the prime minister, Zafarullah Khan Jamali, under the Musharraf government. Tariq was assassinated in 2003. <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a>i courts have recently allowed registration of<a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=%20Hafiz%20Saeed" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;"> Hafiz Saeed</a>'s new party <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a> Milli Muslim League and would be the unknown factor in the elections.</div>
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Perhaps the biggest recent revelation about the role of Islamists was the Faizabad Interchange by the Barelvireligious group Tehreek-e-LabaikYaRasool Allah (TLYR) Rizvi faction demanding the sacking of interior minister on a religious issue was ultimately sorted out by the Army and protesters were paid cash for leaving. The civilians had abdicated and the Army was the arbiter. This standoff was in November 2017. Increasingly, the one-time peaceful Islamic priests and sometimes even the oddities among them have witnessed how profitable it has been to be a radical cross-border mujahideen and now demand similar treatment. The state cannot call off the jihad it has nurtured because there will thousands of unemployed<a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=%20jihadis" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;"> jihadis</a> on the streets of Lahore and Islamabad.</div>
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Thus, we have not only the Army backing their favourite<a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=%20jihadis" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;"> jihadis</a> but also the politicians helping them become mainstream including those groups like the LeT, (JuD's armed wing) that had carried out plotted the Mumbai carnage in 2008. For this to be topically effective, persons like<a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=%20Hafiz%20Saeed" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;"> Hafiz Saeed</a> need ammunition to be able to raise the anti-Indian temperature, draw crowds of believers and votes election time. Ratcheting of this tension has begun. We should expect more violence in Kashmir, heightened crossfire at the LOC or the issue of Jadav to resurface. Deteriorated relations with India will also convince the Americans that inclusion of India in solving Afghanistan or even presence there of Indians in Afghanistan is bad news for the<a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=%20US" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;"> US</a>.</div>
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There is very little content in India-<a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a> relations. There was never much of it anyway. It is much less now. There is barely any trade and no tourism. <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a> will not implement the Afghan Transit Treaty; has dragged its feet on granting MFN with 1209 items on the negative list. Exports to India are terror and more terror. That being so, there is little point in maintaining such large missions there, and if our policy is to ignore <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a> until they learn to behave like a responsible neighbour (as this writer has been recommending on the past) we should have downgraded our embassy representation a long time ago.</div>
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The recent withdrawal of their High Commissioner either indicates a further deterioration in the <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=bilateral%20relations" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">bilateral relations</a> or is a confirmation that there is no substance in this relationship. Merely issuing visas for medical treatment in India are good humane gestures but these by themselves do not add substance to this relationship. Those who can afford to go the<a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=%20US" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;"> US</a> or Europe are also those who control the levers in <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a>. They go there for medical treatment, education, vacations or seeking shelter from state <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=harassment" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">harassment</a>. Looking at it realistically, noble acts do no enhance <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=bilateral%20relations" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">bilateral relations</a>; only furtherance or preservations of national interests helps. This plus a little bit of cognitive empathy for the other side that tries to understand without emotion their point of view. This might help us understand why they behave in a particular manner and not be carried away by sentiment.</div>
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We always forget in our naivete that the <a href="https://www.aninews.in/search?query=Pakistan" style="background-color: transparent; box-sizing: border-box; color: #1fbfa0; cursor: pointer; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; text-decoration-line: none;">Pakistan</a> establishment does not seek a better relationship with India. It never has. Now that it is swinging further to the right, it will never seek such a relationship. It would be good to factor this into our calculations. (ANI)</div>
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<b>Source: ANI, 19th March 2018 </b></div>
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Vikram Soodhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17532738573788654660noreply@blogger.com0